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Rory,
You have brought up some good points.
My wife, who experienced Allied bombings in W.W.II, is very scared about
Y2K. I went out today to fill up our kerosene 5 gal container to appease
her.
I have a friend in the banking business and he has related that the FED
examiners have been very diligent checking on their ability to go through
Y2K. The Fed.'s position is that if a financial institution is not able to
prove Y2K compliant, they are out of business and will be taken over by a
compliant institution.
Here in Colorado Springs a bunch of Russian military officers are arriving
to participate with the Space Command folks to monitor the state of world
affairs (read inadvertent nuclear missile launches). The US has a good
handle on its nuclear weapons but we aren't so sure about the rest of the
world. The press is making a big deal about this and I suspect that you
will see a lot of press reports New Year's Eve from here.
Life is a crap shoot, but good planning can sometimes mitigate risk.
Insurance in its many forms is a transfer of risk. I stand by my earlier
statement is that in the long term Y2K might be an insignificant event in
the long haul. I think the risk may be in being out of the market may
outweigh the risk control of cashing out.
Next week should be very interesting.
Marlowe
----- Original Message -----
From: Rory Lewellen <rl2946@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <marlowec@xxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 1999 6:34 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Dilemma
> Marlowe,
>
> Your analysis may well prove correct, and such is, I suspect,
> the hoped for outcome by most all of us. On the other hand,
> the fact that FEMA plans on calling up 800 government crisis
> team members, all fifty states will activate their Emergency
> Communications Centers, leaves are, on the whole, cancelled for
> the military, Amtrack will not be running trains over the
> New Years weekend, many critical public institutions will have
> full staffing on New Year's Eve, et cetera, gives one pause to
> consider the possibilities.
> Let us, for argument sake, agree the above are only trappings
> to appease the public; they assure us that there really is no
> cause for alarm. Let us agree that big instutions will endure.
> As an aside, a relative has run a small auto parts chain in
> Southern California for many years. Five years ago, he spent
> upwards of fifty grand on an inventory control system. This
> past spring, he discovered the system won't be Y2K compliant,
> it will not work past the year. The vendor wanted to sell him
> a new system, one that would be compliant. So there was a
> choice; either spend another big chunk of change to boldly keep
> going head to head with the Pep Boys, or buy a fifth-wheeler
> and cruise the country after all the stores are shuttered.
> And so, his former employees will be out of a job come 2000.
> How many small to medium size business owners found themselves
> in the same situation and, either by choice or default, shall
> soon be closing?
> This "non-event" has great potential for economic harm for the
> world as time accrues, even though the immediate effect will be
> devastating for those loyal employees soon to be without work.
> If societal services maintain their function into next year,
> then we will have an opportunity to evaluate the damage to be
> inflicted on a macro level, as all those unemployed stress the
> system. The evidence should become overwhelming by spring,
> unless the extrapolation is fundamentally flawed.
>
> Merry Christmas, everyone.
>
> Rory Lewellen
>
>
> Marlowe Cassetti wrote:
> >
> > Gwenn,
> >
> > If you are a stock & mutual fund investor and have a long term
investment
> > horizon then Y2K in a gnat on your investment pathway. I expect that it
> > will be a non event. When the nervous Nelly's wake up next month and
> > discover that they have missed a good size bull move, they will buy back
in
> > at higher prices.
> >
> > Having said all that, besides being a long term investor of mutual funds
I
> > am also an active futures trader who holds positions overnight and over
> > weekends. I am thinking about whether or not to hold trades over the
end of
> > the year weekend. It might be quite a ride.
> >
> > Marlowe
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: List RT <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; List Serenity-Trading
> > <serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 1999 10:09 AM
> > Subject: Dilemma
> >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > What is your take here:
> > >
> > > With this raging bull going on, what would you do over the holidays?
> > > Keep your long stocks or exit all and come back Jan 5th with a clean
> > > plate?
> > >
> > > Gwenn
> > >
> > >
> > >
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