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On Dec 13, 7:20pm, Proffittak@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Subject: [RT] small cap/mid cap/esp/grouth
> hello
>
> here are some POTENTIAL winners
> symbol price debt/eqity esp/gro sales/gro price/book
> efs 16.94 .11 14.98 13.16 .94
> faf 13.50 .16 22.25 15.52 .98
> ntz 14.69 .01 9.52 18.02 .1
> phsy 46 .29 12.98 33.48 .92
EFS and FAF are financials, and PHSY is healthcare. I think if you're
going to value those cos. you'll need something more meaningful than
EPS or Price-to-Sales.
PHSY is trading at 2x cash, and has about 800M in net cash,
which makes it interesting as a takeover candidate.
>
> in small cap
> these have over 50% esp grouth and 50% sales growth
> form detc dgtc ckp chb apgr
FORM, like a lot of the other Y2K companies appears to
floundering as Y2K nears. Although the screen may say 50% EPS
and sales growth, the following summary doesn't sound so good:
JetForm (FORM) Corporation develops Web-based
Software solutions that automate business
processes, transforming them into
e-processes. The Company's technology is
used to replace existing preprinted form
processes with electronic forms-based
solutions. For the three months ended
7/31/99, total revenues fell 29% to C$23
million. Net loss totalled C$630 thousand
vs. an income of C$5.7 million. Results
reflect lower product revenues due to the
Year 2000 issue and a shift toward
internet solutions.
The move to internet solutions is smart, but this is definitely
a company in transition. Similar story with IARC, (transition
from Y2K, except the it may be more difficult to guage IARC's
potential).
DETC looks interesting - smallish float (5M shares) decent
profitability, in the security equip. biz, which seems like a growth
industry to me. Only 18% institution owned, which is good. One prob.
is 5 yr. Sales growth rate is 35% (per Marketguide), but y-o-y growth
rate is only 5%, and appears to be dropping.
DGTC the imaging co. looks good, but is low on cash. This is good,
if you think their only way out is to sell the biz, otherwise
it means they take on more debt and/or dillute the shares.
Other negatives declining EPS growth rates (30% 5 years,
14% 1 year). 75% institutional ownership, a slight negative.
CKP (Checkpoint Systems) is another security co. Has a similar prob.
of good 5year sales growth states, but declining (and negative) recent
sales growth. EPS likewise, though not as negative. Float is on the
high side, cash is okay, 80% institution owned.
CHB (Champion Enterprises) makes mfg. homes. Sales growth +16%,
but revs. fell this past year -38%. Had to write off a loss due
a customer default. Should be a good biz. as house prices continue
to increase, though obviously this biz. is rate sensitive, and right
now the picture isn't so sanguine. A little low on cash, and 50%
debt/euity don't help either. 95% institution owned and 42M float,
are negatives. Basically, I don't like the debt, and the interest
rate environment may not be favorable.
APGR (Arch Comm. Group) does pagers and paging services.
6M float and only 55% institution owned, a plus.
Cash is a little low, but okay. Recent sales growth +98%, 5yr is 43%.
Big negative is neg. earnings however. The big negative is a very
negative earnings situation, and MarketGuide shows book value is
_negative_. The negative book value is a big red flag,
and requires further research. If they can turn the company around
though, it would seem that this stock could triple easy. The 4 days
worth of short interest will help too, given the small float.
------------------
Marketguide's numbers (via Yahoo! Profile) don't seem to
line that well with those in your screen. Esp. the negative
book value on APGR. In any event, I'd look at souping up
your stock screen to look for recent eps growth (trailing 12 months)
to be greater than 5 year growth rate, and would add a screen
for cash, or price/free cash flow (lower is better).
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