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I just posted this to another list and thought I'd forward a copy to the
Realtrader's list at realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx since the moderators at
realtraders.com seem not to care that their server has been repeating the
same messages every few hours for several days. I hope everyone will be
moving to the new list server, I certainly am.
Earl
> My crystal ball seems pretty well fogged over as I start this, but maybe
it
> will clear a bit as I proceed:
>
> S&P (futures) longer term: I think the weekly has a good symetrical look
to
> it. I like the AGet 10/70 with long term counts: w.4 completing Oct98 and
> w.5 under construction.with initial target just shy of 1700. The counts
for
> w.5 also subdivide nicely showing w.4.5 completing Oct99 with w5.5 under
> construction. MOB resistance is nearby at 1505 Last magor Turning Point
> (AGet Time Clusters) displayed was 26Nov and next on 14Apr. W.5 should
> subdivide and price and time appears propitious for a correction - w.2.5
> (w.1.5 may be the last TP). On the monthly I see a big w.3 under
> construction and a Dec99 turning point suggesting a w.4 could be due.
> Looking to my weekly breadth studies, I'm showing serious
non-confirmations
> and bearish divergences in the weekly studies (using weekly a/d and h/l
from
> Barron's) - not much of a basis for an immediate major advance from here.
> Conclusion - trend is up, seasonality is strong, could be due for a w.2
> correction. Ball game on the weekly could be over if the Oct99 lows are
> taken out.
>
> S&P shorter term: the rally from the 18Oct low (w.5 on the weekly) is the
> first from a significant correction, has managed to surpass the previous
> Jul99 high, and appears to be somewhere in it's 5th wave. I'm using the
5/17
> oscillator to obtain the required w.4 pullback. I'm showing strong MOB
> resistance at 1468 and initial w.5 target at 1485. Looking to my daily
NYSE
> breadth studies, I see nothing but non-confirmations and bearish
> divergences. The last major daily TP seems to have conincided with the w.4
> bottom and the next TP is shown for 24Dec (anyone remember Tim's post re "
> the year's lowest sun and longest night, also has the closest moon" on
> 22Dec). Also appears ready for a correction with a w.2 target of 1335-65.
>
> ND100 (futures) long and short term: not a lot of history here so not much
> help but I like Aug99 as a starting point with 18Oct as a w.2 low (I'm
> adapting from 10/70 and Long Term counts in AGet). I see a strong w.3
under
> construction with most likely target at 3400. Weekly breadth on the NASDAQ
> looks quite strong however the new highs have not been confirmed - a
warning
> since price has made an extremely strong move. confirming the entire move.
> Daily breadth strongly confirmed the move into midNov, however it has been
> diverging more recently and issues a sell signal on 06Dec. And did I
mention
> a Turning Point on the daily on 24Dec?
>
> RU2000 (futures): without going into a lot of detail, I note what appears
to
> be shaping up as a very nice cup and handle bottom. My S&P500/Ru2000 ratio
> chart has turned up nicely suggesting the small caps should outperform
> (could mean go up faster or go down less). Seasonality is very strong. And
> did I mention a Turning Point on the both the daily and weekly on 24Dec?
>
> DJ Averages (weekly) - the transports and utilities have been heading
south
> big time with the transports in what looks like a strong w.5 and the
> utilities in a w.3 with the Sep98 lows only a couple of points away.
>
> The crystal ball still seems a bit hazy, but that's probably because it's
> suggesting some near term caution, quite possibly a correction in the
SP500
> and ND100 followed by moves higher - might that begin around 24Dec?
>
> Just to avoid going overboard in bullishness, I'm attaching an interesting
> pair of charts constructed using NYSE weekly a/d and h/l statistics from
> Barron's. As background, I vividly remember the IPO frenzy in computer
> companies (service bureaus, consulting, etc.) during the late sixties -
> early seventies and I've been scouring my historical charts for something
> comparable where the NASDAQ outperformed the NYSE while a prolonged
> divergence occurred in NYSE breadth. I'm seeing an amazing similarity in
the
> NYSE/NASDAQ from the Jul70 through late Dec72 when the NYSE rose 50%
while
> the NASDAQ doubled. NYSE weekly breadth and hi/lo declined during each of
> the 3 consecutively higher highs
> in the NYSE. In the final run, the NYSE rallied from a low on 13Oct72 to
> 08Dec, dipped the following week and put in a double top on 05Jan. The
> market then declined by 50% during the following 21 months. Examining the
> significant corrections from the mid-60's onward, I find only one major
> correction where the NASDAQ failed to turn south well ahead of the NYSE
and
> that was 70-72 just ahead of the 72 top. Interesting, yes, tradeable, no.
>
> Earl
>
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