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My take on this is that no system is perfect, and however it has tested, the
future will be quite different, usually less profitable, sometimes a lot less.
Since I don't know which ones are going to survive, I trade several and track
each performance seperately. As for single trades, I stop loss systems,
patterns, methods, concepts whatever, when they don't perform anymore, and I
stay with a portfolio of systems (even if discretionnary as I do now) for as
long as they deliver OK. I don't expect miracles, just about steady behavior.
If one obviously breaks down, or shows unexpected flaws, I just dump it. The
advantage of being discretionary now, is that i don't need to buy any new soft
each time, or work for hours on indicators, I just adjust my reading of bars
differently, or modify my bet sizing. That is quite cheap to do...
Gwenn
JHP wrote:
> It is quite obvious that by using several sytems for the same commodity
> simultaneously, you can expect coincidence of opposite signals, early exit
> signals, reversals and all sorts of confusion and chaos.
> My approach would be first to decide which system, A or B, is better
> on the basis of my long term testing on this particular commodity.
> I'd never use 2 systems for the same commodity at the same time.
> I'd try perhaps to combine 2 systems and find by testing it if it works
> better than A or B.
> In other words, the answer is >testing<. My experience shows me that
> 2 opposite signals, even given by one system, mean that there is something
> wrong with the system and should be corrected or sytem rules should specify
> which signal to take in such case.
> Jan Philipp
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mervin Yeung <tinyeung@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 1999 6:06 PM
> Subject: [RT] Conflict of systems {01}
>
> > Hi RTs,
> >
> > Does any RT use more than 1 trading system? What would you do if
> > different systems come out with opposite forecasts?
> >
> > Give you an example. March 2000 cotton. If you use MA cross over, you
> > still have short positions. If you use breakout rule, you probably have
> > gone short but got out today because you are afraid this thing is doing
> > a "false breakout". If you follow trends AND adopt "buy breaks, sell
> > rallies" axiom, then you are waiting for this rally to finish its surge
> > and go short again. If you like to pick the tops and the bottoms, now
> > it is the time to go long. If you use "Purple System" (An unorthodox
> > application of an ancient Chinese Astro. method), then cotton will shoot
> > up vertically and never look back. .......etc. There are hundreds of
> > systems that give you all different forecasts. No wonder is trading
> > difficult!
> >
> > I think consciously and subconsciously, deep our mind, we must be at
> > peace with our methods. For example, Norman often gave us his Astro.
> > forecasts, which are often quite accurate. (In my opinion) However, I
> > simply could not bring myself to trade on Astrology because I studied
> > too much Physics and Math. in college.
> >
> > However, I always love to see Norman's forecasts.
> >
> > All the above are for general information only, not for trading
> > purpose.
> >
> > Mervin
> >
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