|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Can't find anything wrong with your perceptions below. You could even add
some longer term seasonals that finish off the tax loss selling in the first
two weeks of December. In recent years the DOW hits a high late Nov, early
Dec and then sells off in a mild fashion until mid month and then turns up
into the first of January. So far it appears to be following that cycle
fairly closely. The DOW even reached the summer highs just like in previous
years. Same O, same O. Using the Nsync index which is a composite of 8
indicators the daily DOW has reached the overbought reversal level of
previous years at about the same time. Weekly is rising as you would expect
so the Dec correction will probably be mild and nothing to panic over.
BobRoeske
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, December 05, 1999 5:07 PM
Subject: [RT] SP500 Near Term {01}
> I debated on whether to post these notes,.....
> as I have already shared them with one or two
> other RT'rs who gave me feedback with alternative
> forecast scenarios. So with a huge disclaimer that
> this is simply one person's perspective,...and just as
> likely to be wrong as it is to be valid,....I am squinting
> as I hit the Send Now button...
>
> ************************
> End of Week Notes Fri. 12-03 Dow 11286.18 S&P500 1433.3
>
> On daily Dow-30 chart,..note a likely "flag" consolidation formed
> between 10-29 and 11-12 appears to be the "focal or mid-point"
> of a minor mirror image between the 10-18 low and 12-03 "high?".
> (10-18 to center at 11-09 is 16 mkt days,...and 11-09 to 12-03
> is 17 mkt days,...for a total of 33 mkt days from 10-18 low to
> likely high 12-03. The 33-34 mkt day count is common for
> low-high duration over past five years. VIX at 20.82
> is in potential market topping area,...as is the 5 day TRIN
> which indicates market topping also.
>
> Next potential pivot dates include 12-07 (New Moon) ....then
> 12-10 (13 mkt day count from 11-22, 11-03, 10-15, etc).
> If we are at a high, suspect this timeframe to mark a move
> lower into 12-23 (note 12-22 Full Moon/ Winter begins)
> which is indicated by a myriad of methods as significant.
>
> Importantly,...and I would very much appreciate any thoughts on this,
> ...there appears a potential Mirror Image on the daily Dow-30 chart.
> Centered on the low of 10-18-99, the 33 days to the right side of the
image
> is fairly symmetric with the 37 days to the left (since late August high)
> side.....
> suggesting at a minimum a double top,...in addition to a 12 to 14 mkt
> day decline likely here once a turn down occurs. (The mirror image of
> the advance from early Aug low into late Aug high.) This is most
> intriguing as 14 mkt days from the 12-03 potential high falls exactly
> on 12-23 which is indicated as a likely intermediate term cycle turn
> by various separate methods. Note a Full Moon occurs on 12-22,
> which is also the first day of Winter. The 12-23 potential cycle
> low has been the subject of previous RT postings.
>
> Sentiment: Key weekly surveys indicate solidly "overbelieved"
> which is very negative from a contrary perspective. AAII Bulls 62%,
> Bears 13%,...a whopping 5 times as many Bulls, and 62% Bulls
> is a 5 year high,....13% Bears a 10-12 year low. Inv. Intell. 53%
> Bulls, 27% Bears,...twice as many bulls,.now over 50% Bulls for
> three weeks, with Bears at 30% or less. Other weekly surveys
> concur,....and reflect "overbelief". Yet very short term Daily Index
> Put/Call ratio has firmed last 3 days (@ 1.7 W, 2.74 Th, 1.68 F)
> indicating money mangers hedging against a delcine.
> Daily P/C ratio less significant than weekly surveys though.
>
> Currently maintaining exposure to Pacific Basin type mutual funds....
> ..focus on Japan/Asia where markets should rise strongly (on follow
> through to US advance) when Pacific Basin re-opens Sunday night.
>
> Regards, Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\DOW.gif"
|