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The point is that MIT and Wharton are prepared to admit that random walk
is bogus and that technical analysis can thus theoretically work. I
think Andrew Lo is one of the authors of "A Non-Random Walk Down Wall
Street". And, I believe Wharton and the Market Technicians Assoc. have
announced or are prepared to announce an agreement to put together a TA
curriculum jointly.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: THE DOCTOR <droex@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 03, 1999 10:40 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of time? {04}
> There is a "trading Lab" at MIT which is a state of the art trading
room ..... it
> has nothing to do with TA.
>
> Bob Fulks wrote:
>
> > At 11:37 PM -0800 11/29/99, Rajat K. Bose wrote:
> >
> > >By the Steven, you wrote that Wharton and MIT are about to start
> > >teaching TA--when and in which program, could you just let me know?
> >
> > Attached below is a copy of my post of 5/19/99 with more detail on
this topic:
> >
> > Bob
> >
> > At 9:54 PM -0400 5/18/99, Jim White wrote:
> >
> > >The conclusion is that markets exhibit dependencies in the short
term which
> > >do render them to be forecastable over the short term. Ralph
Ancampora has
> > >even indicated that some of the most prestigious business schools
wiil soon
> > >be teaching market timing techniques to their students.
> >
> > I believe the many "prestigious business schools" are already doing
this. I
> > have seen the plans of a "Trading Lab" at some business school, (I
think it
> > might have been MIT). And respected professors have written books
related
> > to the subject.
> >
> > I recently read an excellent book, "The Econometrics of Financial
Markets",
> > 1997, by three authors:
> >
> > John Campbell,
> > Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics at Harvard Un.,
> > Andrew Lo,
> > Harris & Harris Group Professor at the Sloan School of
> > Management at MIT, and
> > Craig MacKinlay, Professor of Finance at the Wharton School,
> > Un. of Pennsylvania.
> >
> > Chapter 2 spends over 50 pages summarizing dozens of technical
papers
> > published in prestigious economic journals that addressed
predicability of
> > the markets and tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis. In the
conclusion of
> > the chapter, Section 2.9, they state:
> >
> > "Recent econometric advances and empirical evidence seem to
> > suggest that financial asset returns are predictable to some
> > degree. Thirty years ago this would have been tantamount to
> > an outright rejection of market efficiency. However, modern
> > financial economics teaches us that other, perfectly rational
> > factors may account for such predictability. The fine
> > structure of securities markets and frictions in the trading
> > process can generate predictability. Time-varying expected
> > returns due to changing business conditions can generate
> > predictability. A certain degree of predictability may be
> > necessary to reward investors for bearing certain dynamic
> > risks. Motivated by these considerations, we shall develop
> > many models and techniques to address these and other related
> > issues in the coming chapters."
> >
> > Looks as if these teachers are finally getting the right idea!
> >
> > Bob Fulks
>
>
>
>
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