[RT] S&P500 Near Term {01}

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

>From Jim Pilliod,...jpilleafe@xxxxxxx    dated 12-02      0600 am  ECT

Early morning thoughts on the very short term.....

There is a good chance that we are putting in a base here,...and that 12-02 
will mark a low.  Both the long term and short term Bradley Models call for a 
Low on 12-02 and 12-03.  Other projections call for a Low on 12-02,...with 
the resulting turn to last into 12-07,...New Moon date and next projected 
turning point by several different methods.   

The Put /Call  ratio picked up nicely yesterday (it's about time...had been 
very weak last three days)...with the index ratio coming in at 1.70 on Wedn 
12-01 close,...vs a "market topping level of 0.90 just the day before.  I 
cannot recall a time where the Index P/C ratio was so WEAK in the face of an 
85 point decline in the NASDAQ.  What complacency! 

The ratio of assets in Rydex Nova (bull bet) to Ursa (bear bet) is only  
1.533,...which is dead neutral,...not indicative of either "over" or "under" 
belief ar this time.  Neutral. 

So I too am prepared for stabilization and a move upward from 12-02 into 
12-07,...but clearly think that if this is to happen,...we will see Bonds 
start to behave.  As of 5:00 am this morning,..bonds are lower,...same old 
story,....looks like we may continue range bound as  volume drops off ahead 
of the Jobs number on Friday.

Also there is a huge $1.5 Trillion on the sidelines awaiting Y2K 
resolution,..can't but help to think that at some point this will be a 
"positive" for the overall market.  Timing is the key.  We may have to endure 
some tax loss selling in the next week or two before the market rises and 
starts to suck in the Y2K money.  Also,...money is waiting to come into the 
market until after mutual funds have their distributions, ...typically by mid 
December, etc.   Key in my mind is if profit taking comes into the 
techs,...that would cause selling to lock in gains,..etc. Despite strong 
markets in Europe this morning,...the NASDAQ futures are flat,...likely a  
lackluster morning.  

Any thoughts appeciated,...have a good day.  

  JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx