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Bill Ulrich is a recognized expert on Y2K and writes a regular column in
Computerworld on the issue. He has been involved in the business since at
least 1993 and has also written a couple of books on the subject.
IMO, there is too much complacency and acceptance that there will not be any
major problems at all. Should the consensus be wrong, it will certainly
throw a wrench into the potential of the anticipated "January effect".
JW
http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/991129CE6A
Y2K's close; we're still not ready
By WIlliam Ulrich
11/29/99 Industry association and government spokesmen have proclaimed the
Y2K problem dead.
People believe this because they ignore published status reports to the
contrary, see no personal connection to the problem and listen to pundits
while doing little research for themselves.
But when problems emerge, companies and governments will take the brunt of
the criticism. Assessing the reality of the situation will allow
organizations to respond to the public relations challenges ahead. Reality
is different from what the media tell us.
In September, Cap Gemini America, an information technology consulting firm
in New York, found that 44% of major companies wouldn't have their
mission-critical systems compliant by January. A CIO magazine poll found
that 81% of large companies weren't yet finished and that half the companies
surveyed had no contingency plans. A National Federation of Independent
Business study found that 40% of small businesses had done nothing about
Y2K.
Where progress has been made, work completed to date remains in question.
According to independent validation and verification (IV&V) studies by SEEC
Inc. in Pittsburgh, the average mainframe or midrange system contains 510
date-related errors after remediation. A second study in February by
Reasoning Inc. in Mountain View, Calif., found between 100 and 1,000 bugs in
similar samplings. An unrelated study by SriSoft Corp. in Diamond Bar,
Calif., in October discovered that testing catches 30% of Y2K bugs, while
IV&V uncovers another 40% to 45%. This leaves 25% of the remaining bugs in a
best-case scenario.
Statistics drawn from government hearings and Web sites paint a more
detailed picture. Only 13.5% of small and midsize chemical and petroleum
firms have completed Y2K preparations. The Food and Drug Administration said
4,053 high-risk biomedical devices remain noncompliant. More than half of
all health care providers won't be ready. And 70% of schools are unprepared.
According to calculations found in a report by researcher Warren Bone at New
York-based Westergaard.com Inc.'s Web site (www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/), only
75% of federal mission-critical systems will be finished by January, and the
status of nonmission-critical systems remains unclear. Other reports found
13 states at risk for failures in federal benefit programs, 25% of U.S.
counties with no Y2K plan, 63% of 911 call centers unprepared and Medicare
provider payments facing delays.
Even best-case scenarios are imperfect. The Social Security Administration
(SSA) began year 2000 efforts in 1989. In July, according to the Information
Systems Accounting & Information Management Division, SSA found 1,565 year
2000 errors in mission-critical systems. Only 44% of these had been fixed as
of October. SSA is still checking data and finalizing contingency plans.
What does this mean to consumers? In statements made in early November to
CBS News, the State Department inspector general said, "80 countries are at
moderate to high risk, and there will be failures at every economic level,
in every region of the world." Nick Gogerty, an analyst at London-based
International Monitoring, predicted in October that Y2K would lead to $1.1
trillion in damages worldwide, not including those from litigation and
insurance costs. These costs, along with many inconveniences, will affect us
next year.
Why is the government telling us that most industries are 100% Y2K-compliant
when bug-free systems are a myth? The answer is that the government and
selected industries don't want people to panic. But when things go wrong,
people will demand answers.
What can organizations do when problems strike? First, consider that 80% of
your customers expect no year 2000 problems at all. Second, don't believe
your own industry hype about 100% compliance. Third, be polite and let them
know we are all in this together -- for the long haul.
Most important, when future large-scale challenges arise, consider your
industry's posture. The unrealistic Y2K performance expectations set by
industry associations are unachievable. Finally, see if any of those
high-priced public relations directors want to work your customer hot line
in January. They may learn something about manipulating perceptions about
matters they barely understand.
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