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Howard,
So does the PPS Trading System still work? I heard it
was being hit by traders fading the signals?
--- Howard Hopkins <hehohop@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> RT's,
>
> Curtis Arnold talks about trading failed H & S
> patterns in his good book
> 'PPS Trading System'.
>
> Howard
>
>
> >From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of
> time? {02}
> >Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1999 16:57:44 -0800
> >
> >
> >
> >RJones2279@xxxxxxx wrote:
> >
> > > Hi RT'ers,
> > >
> > > Read an interesting article here in England in
> the Investors
> >Chroniclebased
> > > on a paper :"Methodical madness: technical
> analysis and the
> >irrationality of
> > > exchange rate forecasts"(Economic Journal - Oct
> 1999)
> > >
> > > Have'nt read the original article but it studied
> the use of the popular
> >head
> > > and shoulders pattern as a predictor of currency
> movements( 6 leading
> > > cuurencies against the US $ - 1973 - 1994) and
> found it to be
> >useless.They
> > > said that where pattern did give good results it
> may have been because
> >of
> > > self fulfilling prophecy as so many traders use
> the technique.
> > >
> > > They said that profits could be bettered by
> using much simpler trading
> >rules
> > > - MA crossover or when current price is above
> recent levels are two
> >cited.
> > >
> > > Whilst the article studied the H & S pattern
> specifically the IC
> >intimated
> > > that a large part of tech analysis is a waste of
> time.
> > >
> > > Any comments?
> >
> >NW: Other studies have confirmed that the H&S
> pattern at best only works
> >slightly better than 50% of the time. However, the
> failed H&S pattern,
> >whereby
> >the market breaks out the opposite end of the
> consolidation has a much
> >better
> >batting ave. Also, there should have been some
> measure of the percentage
> >move
> >the market made when it did follow thru on the
> break out. Would it not be
> >worthwhile to use such a pattern, if only right 50%
> of the time, if when it
> >does
> >break out you gain 1,000 points and when it fails
> you only lose 100 points?
> > As
> >for someone ruling out techincal analysis just
> because one pattern doesn't
> >meet
> >expectations is dismissing mondern medical science
> just because we have now
> >concluded that blood letting has not been proven to
> be beneficial in curing
> >disease. I sense that the author has axe to grind.
> >
> >Cheers,
> >
> >Norman Winski
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Bob Jones
> >
> >
>
>
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