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Info on GGU and Pruden is available at http://www.hankpruden.com
----- Original Message -----
From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 1999 4:27 AM
Subject: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of time? {03}
> They will be part of the MBA programs. I know Wharton is creating a
> whole program. And the two MTA professors wrote the book: "A Non Random
> Walk Down Wall Street". It is in the MBA programs, though I am not sure
> what track. I assume finance. Of course, Tudor has also given money for
> a chair I think at the University of Virginia and Henry Pruden runs a
> whole program I think either at Golden Gate Univ. or the Univ. of San
> Francisco.
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>
> url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Rajat K. Bose <rajatkbose@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 1999 2:37 AM
> Subject: Re: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of time? {02}
>
>
> > Such articles discrediting TA are published time and again by
> > non-practicioners who never delved deep into the subjectand neither
> they
> > ever will. Their approach is to consider TA in a rather piecemeal
> > manner--like taking the Head & Shoulders pattern that too not in its
> > entirety--which by no means is not the right approach to investigate
> any
> > hypothesis or theory.
> >
> > Initially, while being a fundamental analyst, I too used to dismiss it
> in
> > the same vein. Now having studied the subject and using it for
> professional
> > activities I am convinced it has got lot of value and is worth
> pursuing.
> >
> > I have learnt to have an open mind and test any interesting idea
> thoroughly
> > before dismissing it the way even today TA is being dubbed as useless.
> >
> > In this context, those who are willing to read such articles and/or
> > materials should read the latest and revised edition of Burton
> Malkiel's
> > 'Random Walk Down the Wall Street' in which the author argues with
> renewed
> > vigour that both fundamental and technical analyses are useless. He
> also has
> > his own statistics to bolster his case.
> >
> > By the Steven, you wrote that Wharton and MIT are about to start
> teaching
> > TA--when and in which program, could you just let me know?
> >
> > Rajat K Bose
> >
> > >From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Subject: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of time? {02}
> > >Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1999 12:06:07 -0500
> > >
> > >I have not seen that paper, but the NY Fed has done studies on the
> head
> > >and shoulders too in the FX markets, and first said that it worked,
> and
> > >then that it did not. There is a big problem with head and shoulders
> > >studies in forex. A head and shoulders is not a head and shoulders if
> > >the volume components are not correct, it is not a head and shoulders
> > >and that info is not known for the FX market.
> > >
> > >The Fed's study, by the way, used things that no technician would
> call a
> > >head and shoulders pattern. I would not be surprised if the same can
> be
> > >said of this study. And, as I said, without volume, the pattern is
> > >almost meaningless.
> > >
> > >As far as moving averages, that is technical analysis too, so saying
> it
> > >does not work shows that these folks do not even know what they are
> > >trying to disprove. The London School of Economics did a paper years
> ago
> > >that also showed that moving average systems have positive returns
> that
> > >could not be possible if TA did not work and if random walk was
> correct.
> > >
> > >Wharton and MIT are set to start teaching TA because they no longer
> > >believe in random walk either. These guys are just barking up the
> wrong
> > >tree. Put them in with others for whom time has passed then by.
> > >
> > >---
> > >Steven W. Poser, President
> > >Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> > >
> > >url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> > >email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >Tel: 201-995-0845
> > >Fax: 201-995-0846
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: <RJones2279@xxxxxxx>
> > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Sent: Monday, November 29, 1999 11:31 AM
> > >Subject: [realtraders] Tech analysis - waste of time? {01}
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi RT'ers,
> > > >
> > > > Read an interesting article here in England in the Investors
> > >Chroniclebased
> > > > on a paper :"Methodical madness: technical analysis and the
> > >irrationality of
> > > > exchange rate forecasts"(Economic Journal - Oct 1999)
> > > >
> > > > Have'nt read the original article but it studied the use of the
> > >popular head
> > > > and shoulders pattern as a predictor of currency movements( 6
> leading
> > > > cuurencies against the US $ - 1973 - 1994) and found it to be
> > >useless.They
> > > > said that where pattern did give good results it may have been
> because
> > >of
> > > > self fulfilling prophecy as so many traders use the technique.
> > > >
> > > > They said that profits could be bettered by using much simpler
> trading
> > >rules
> > > > - MA crossover or when current price is above recent levels are
> two
> > >cited.
> > > >
> > > > Whilst the article studied the H & S pattern specifically the IC
> > >intimated
> > > > that a large part of tech analysis is a waste of time.
> > > >
> > > > Any comments?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Bob Jones
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
>
>
>
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