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<BODY><FONT size=2>See the middle part of Jon Carroll's column below for what
seems to be a common view of the market these days.
Comments?<BR><BR></FONT>
<P><FONT size=2>JW<BR>---------------------------------------------<BR>Sage
Advice For Sane Living<BR><BR>JON CARROLL Monday, November 29,
1999<BR>----<BR><BR>ONCE AGAIN, AS a service to others, we present another in
the popular ``Too Stupid to Live'' series. In this helpful newspaper feature,
clinical expert Jon Carroll reveals handy hints for woolgatherers, stargazers,
garden starers and the terminally bemused.<BR><BR>Today's lesson: Never think
while changing your clothes. Keep your mind on the task at hand. Do not
speculate. There is a time for philosophical contemplation, but that ain't
it.<BR><BR>I must change clothes in public now, at my gym. Because I live in
California, where we have adopted an informal lifestyle that is the envy of
Boston, the clothes that I work out in are not that different from the clothes I
wear on the street.<BR><BR>Sometimes I have changed from a T-shirt to a T-shirt.
Occasionally I have taken off white socks only to put on white socks.
Nevertheless, for reasons of hygiene and grooming, it is necessary to keep the
workout clothes separate from the street clothes. I'm sure you're all following
me here, even you, Cynthia.<BR><BR><FONT color=#000080 size=3>The TV sets in the
gym are often tuned to CNBC, which is the stock market channel until it becomes
the Chris Matthews Big Sillyhead channel. So naturally my thoughts turn to the
stock market. I have a 401(k) and an IRA and a Keogh and for all I know a
Florsham, and so I am interested in the Dow, whatever that is.<BR><BR>I know
enough about how the world works to distrust conventional wisdom. Alas, because
everyone is now interested in the stock market, there is so much conventional
wisdom around that it is impossible to be contrarian.<BR><BR>WE ALL KNOW it's
going to crash someday, because it always does. On the other hand, it's been
going to crash for just ever now, and it hasn't actually crashed, and we have
gotten through October and Alan Greenspan has coughed twice and hey ho and up it
rises early in the morning.<BR><BR>And it's made so damn much money (I think to
myself, there in the locker room, toweling down) that even if there's a dread 25
percent ``correction,'' that takes us back to, what, last January, when were all
thinking of selling because everything was too damn high.<BR><BR>So it's not as
if I'd lose money I actually earned with the sweat of my fingers. No, I'd lose
imaginary money. And I'd still have lots of imaginary money left. On the other
hand, if I actually just dumped all these profits into money markets right now,
that money would no longer be imaginary but spendable in my twilight years,
possibly for gene therapy to allow me to play professional baseball in
2020.<BR><BR>On the other hand, doing nothing has been bery bery good to me.
Perhaps proactive sloth is the correct strategy. Maybe my personality is ideal
for money-making in the next millennium.</FONT><BR><BR>SO NOW IT IS time to
leave the locker room, perhaps to seek out my wife and explain my theories about
proactive sloth. One last look in the mirror at the new, more glamorous
me:<BR><BR>I have put on my nice front-button shirt but left my sweatpants on. I
have selected semi-formal socks and shoes for the left foot while retaining that
Just Do It look for my right side. I believe I have put my towel in my gym bag;
in any event, I am just about ready to throw my sweater into the towel
bin.<BR><BR>So I am standing there looking like a damn busker or something, and
I must drag my sorry ass back to the locker to begin repairs. I am conscious
that perhaps my little faux pas has been noticed by the Others.<BR><BR>This
perception does not even depend on the physical presence of any Others; I am
fully prepared to feel shame about the opinion of Others even in an empty
room.<BR><BR>That was when I formulated my mantra: mindfulness in all things,
particularly socks. Our guarantee: Not one joke about safe sox, unless
this counts.<BR><BR>Nothing was said for an hour or more, but I will never
forget jrc@
sfgate.com.<BR><BR>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>©1999
San Francisco Chronicle Page D8 Chronicle
SectionsDatebookCommentarySportsNewsBusiness <BR></FONT></P></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Nov 30 03:35:47 1999
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Date: Tue, 30 Nov 1999 06:25:26 EST
Subject: [realtraders] S&P500 (Market Timing) {01}
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Status:
(from Jim Pilliod,...dtd 11-30,.... 6:30am ECT)
Some brief thoughts on the near term:
Tues.11-30 has potential to be a short term pivot day,....potential low
(Turnaround Tues) for the following reasons:
1. Seasonality,...last 2 trading days and first 4 trading days each month
tend to have a favorable bias.
2. 11-30 is 13 mkt days from low on 11-10-99,...was 13 days from high on
10-22.
3. Bonds look constructive if Dec contract 111^11 (Monday 11-29 low) can
hold.
4. 11-30 is weekly turn date for Bonds and CRB per Parallax neural net
projection.
I will be watching sentiment (P/C ratio) which has been unfavorable going
into Tuesday for signs of increased fear (not seen yet). Also,...I am wary
of being too constructive for a few more days,...as other methods (including
Bradley model,...etc) indicate that 12-02 is likely to be a key low date.
For position trades this may be an opportunity to "scale" into a longside
trade over the next 3 days. Any rise from these levels may be short term in
nature,...maybe up only into 12-07 per 3 week cycle,..etc.
Any thoughts or feedback much appreciated.
Have a good day,....Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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