[realtraders] CL_Evaluating & Optimizing systems {01}

["hans esser" <he96@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

"Gary Fritz" posted some great comments about system perfomance and:

> % wins:  Obviously, the higher the better.  Higher-% systems are 
> psychologically easier to trade, and they also have much less risk of
> serious drawdown.  (You're less likely to string together a really long
> series of losers.)  You can make a very profitable system with 50%
> winners, but I prefer 60% or higher.  

I think thats a very difficult and dangerous number. While you are right about  
the PSYCHOLOGICAL effects of "having a winner or a looser", the bottom 
line is the $ results over all.

It is very easy to have a high% profitable system, e.g. use stops higher than 
profit targest or exit on first profitable opening (only <g>).

I have seen very high% number systems that collapsed and have seen lots of 
longer term good stuff with only 30-40% winners.

Bottom line - I think THIS number is the least important of all you mentioned 
BUT widely overestimated and marketed !

thanks
rgds hans