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To: MarkBrown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, RealTraders Group
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: FUTR_Getting Long! Cc:
Dear Mark,
I have some experience in what you are pondering. I have held future
position for months and years in the past (rolling them over as spreads on
expiration). I would ride out any correction (to 10%) and increase my
position after the correction.
The question I have now: are we at the beginning of multi year advance or
we are in trading range (with upward bias, maybe)?
If you belive that market will continue to advance for years to come with
minor corrections (up to 10%) then nothing beats "buy and hold" strategy.
But what if we are in trading range? Then you have to try to sell the top
of the trading range and buy the bottoms (meaning try to capture a portion
of the move between boundaries of the trading range). Otherwise all your
gains (and more because of the increases in your position) will be wiped
out when market would retrace the advance you have captured.
As of today I am at opinion (keep in mind my opinion is as valuable as any
other) that market is in trading range. It has to prove that I am wrong by
providing very strong impulse of buying (as would be witnessed by AD line
and volume) that it has power to provide multi year advance. So far, coming
of the last year bottom, market failed to do it. If it will do it now then
I will change my assumptions.
For now I assume that market will go across trading range, makes marginal
highs and then will cross the range on the downside. (Marginal highs is a
figure of speech, it could be many point higher. The are some tools to
estimate the extend of the move). My goal is to capture part of the move on
upside (as I do not trade short side until bear market would establish and
confirm itself).
Permanently confused Alex.
At 03:21 PM 11/12/99 -0600, Mark Brown wrote:
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
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>NAA03745
>
>Hello RealTraders,
>
>I have stood aside holding the SP futures for any
>length of time in a position trade. Preferring to
>chip at it on a day trade basis. I only out
>performed buy hold in 97 when I was luck enough to
>have caught the crash and the following rally up.
>
>Now I'm older wisher and still chicken to get long
>and stay long. I can afford to do it now where in
>the past I was on a shoe string. So what's the
>vote do I let it all hang out and go for it?
>
>I figured I would and just write calls against it
>far enough out so I wouldn't get hit. Close my eyes
>and hang on till 2002.
>
>stupid - am I?
>
>.oİş°¨¨°şİ[ MARK BROWN ]İş°¨¨°şİo.
>
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