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My "major" trend lines show higher projections too (in my case for INDU)
but the problem with trend line projections that it does not say when and
how (zig zags) the market will gets there. So the price may not go to the
upper channel that very moment.
The current rally looks so far like an initiation rally (as opposite to
retracement of the previous advance, we do not have to argue about it for
NASDAQ anymore). The question for me is are we still in the trading range
(up slope, making marginal new highs) or we are going to put a "bull" leg
above recent all times highs. That I do not know yet, but will find out
through the volume and AD behavior.
As of missing the advance, take heart Bill, the market will consolidate
(always had) and if the advance to continue you will have a plenty of
opportunities to get in. As of missing an initial stage of advance you also
have missed the risk associated with it. In the end you do not need to make
all the money, only the money on the trades you make.
Alex,
looking forward the weekend and wishing the good one for everybody.
At 09:08 AM 11/12/99 -0500, Bill Bancroft wrote:
>I can't believe I am going to say this, but I do see the S&P trading
>significantly higher. The S&P has traced out three bullish flag formations in
>the past two weeks--very bullish action. Also the weekly ADX is at a very low
>level. Remember last week, I said the Nasdaq's ADX was at a very low level
>and, based on other indicators, looked ready to move higher (has it ever!).
>Same thing with the S&P now.
>
>Yes, my model still has me out of the market (and feeling the pain!!!!! ugh)
>due to higher interest rates and poor breadth.
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>
>> Had to do a bit of juggling, even as big as this is, but this shows the 62%
>> w.5 target at 1750 and 100% w.5 target at 2062. I have major time cluster
>> w/e 06Mar00, 17Apr00, and 24Jul00. The very long term historical chart of
>> the S&P cash which I've posted previously has upper channel from the 1929
>> high currently just shy of 1600. I know it sounds crazy, especially given
>> the valuation model off the chart, but my hand work and AGet's work all
>> agrees, and so far at least, everything is on target from 22Oct.
>>
>> Earl
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
>> To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Thursday, November 11, 1999 1:49 PM
>> Subject: Re: Near term SP500
>>
>> > Earl
>> > >>
>> > hello
>> > when you get the time
>> > can you post the gif of your weekly showing the 1750 target
>> > regards
>> > Ben
>> >
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Name: SPCCWK.gif
>> SPCCWK.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>> Encoding: base64
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