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Peter:
You had asked:
>Here is the S&P cash as of 10/18/99 using your indicator. If I understand
the
>interpretation the prediction was for sharply lower prices for the three
days
>after the 18th. Is this correct?
Uh, no, that's not even close to correct. But, yes, your TradeStation work
seems fine. My point is that I do not believe that a polynomial in any way
"predicts" the market. And, I sure don't want to take responsibility for
anyone's believing that it has predicitve value. This is not to say that
you or anyone else could not come up with a way to use it as a predictor.
But, you definitely shouldn't conclude from my simple indicator that we
will see "sharply lower prices for the three days after the 18th."
All that I believe you can say from the chart attached to your message is
that the trend had been downward leading into Friday, and that a polynomial
projection would continue to point downward. Is that a "prediction"? Not
in my book.
Hope that helps clarify things
Jay Mackro
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