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<DIV><FONT size=2>I need some help getting in touch with a discount travel
outfit in Hawaii....their 800 number does not work from Canada.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The number is 1-800-809-9844</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Could one of you call them and get a regular number with an
area code please......and then email it to me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Many thanks </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Denis Cattani</FONT></DIV>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Nov 01 17:24:01 1999
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <0.7654f02f.254f7a69@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: SP500 Two questions....(Quakes and Rates)
Date: Mon, 1 Nov 1999 18:00:19 -0700
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Status:
Ben, you really don't want to see this as you will feel compelled to throw
every penny you can find into this undervalued equity market ... house, car,
money market funds, CD's, and children's inheritance. Just in case it's hard
to see, as of Friday the EYR (which is the key item I watch) closed at a
near record high of 1.583.
To justify the extreme level of this ratio, one has to believe that
corporations will be able to effectively double or triple earnings within
the next 12-18 months in order to justify current EYR levels or conversely
that interest rates will drop in half within the next 12-18 months. Perhaps
merger mania will allow corporations to restore pricing power and push
prices up thereby pumping up earnings (oops ... this would push up inflation
which would push up interest rates). Or consider that a 50% haircut in TBill
rates would probably prompt me to post a 30yr-TBill spread chart showing
that a recession is imminent (oops ... a recession would probably depress
sales which would leave fewer units over which to amortize all those
efficiencies ... and stock options). Considering that the 2yr-FF spread
chart I posted earlier suggests interest rates are not likely to have
topped, then it's unlikely that interest rates will drop in half. How about
the market needs to drop in half ... (oops ... smack me, that's just bearish
nonsense). The Fed's less conservative model which uses 10 year rates and
estimated forward earnings (I use trailing earnings), only considers the
market overvalued by 40% which means the market is a true bargain when
compared to my model. BUY! BUY! BUY! Of course even trailing earnings are
not really "real" but at least they have been certified by the auditors
(oops ... but the inside auditors really don't want to see their stock
options under water and the outside auditors don't really want to lose all
that nice revenue from their consulting divisions ... the count of physical
computers and cash in the bank is probably ok though).
There now, Ben, I got carried away ... apologies to all of the bulls ...
perhaps we need to simply invert the chart where "extreme overvalued"
becomes "extreme undervalued" and vice versa (oops ... I think they already
did the black is white and white is black thing in Alice In Wonderland)!
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, November 01, 1999 4:21 PM
Subject: Re: SP500 Two questions....(Quakes and Rates)
> Earl >>
> hello
> nice to hear from you
> how about an update on your diffrence between earnning yeilld and t bill
> yeild
> and can you put the line at +2.00 and -2.00
> regards
> Ben
>
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