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This is from Manuel Ochoa from TRADEHARD.com. I have
followed his analysis and it does make sense.
T-bond futures
"The December futures (USZ9) continued to rally after
yesterday’s lower-than-expected Employment Cost Index
(ECI) today's lower-than-expected New Home Sales.
Further, the Purchasing Management Association Index,
which measures buying activity by companies, came in
on the low side as well. All of this has caused a huge
rally in bonds, including massive short covering. The
economic perception has shifted to a more favorable
inflation outlook.
With all of this enthusiasm, however, we expect bonds
to pull back a bit; we think the market has gotten
ahead of itself. We went short at the 113 15/32 area
with stops in at the 114 19/32 level and a profit
target around 112 15/32. "
I went short on bonds Friday on the close because of
the fact that my timing model is bearish(has been for
3 weeks now) and I got a sell signal on two of my
short term models.
JS
--- Proffittak@xxxxxxx wrote:
> In a message dated 10/30/99 2:03:06 AM Eastern
> Standard Time,
> rjeanhall@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> << hi there ben
> what made you decide to go long bonds yesterday.
> where would you exit your
> trade at the last high115.16or 113.17 62%
> retracement or........
>
> thanks
> robin
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, October 29, 1999 6:23 AM
> Subject: tbond dec
>
> >
> >p.s
> >even bonds looks uncertain,,
> >went long yesterday at close but with stop@
> lowest low of 5 days
>
> >>
> GOOD MORNING
> bonds had 3 days of a powerful trust to the upside
> they broke a down trendline to the upside
> they close above a FEW moving averages
> macd is close to a buy
> bonds were also EXTREAMLY oversold
> crb index is NOT making new highs(no inflation
> fear)
> each day bonds closed almost at their hi
> all points to a bottom
> regards
> Ben
>
=====
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