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Decision Point (tm) Top Advisor's Corner: Bert Dohmen's Weekly Hotline
BBert Dohmen's Weekly Hotline
October 15, 1999
"ABBREVIATED VERSION"
Substantial portions deleted in fairness to paying customers.
I hope that you were able to access the special HOTLINE issued on Wednesday.
The market had made the abrupt turn to the downside on Tuesday, which fit
perfectly into my long-term scenario. However, my mild and brief optimism
last Friday was cut short quickly.
Now you can see that everything I've been writing for the past two months in
Bert Dohmen's WELLINGTON LETTER is coming true. At this point, almost all of
the major indices, except the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite, have had
serious breakdowns. We see large distribution tops on the Dow Jones
Industrials and other indices. These tops have been in the making for the
last four months. It's serious.
For the week, the Dow Industrials lost 630 points, or 6.0%. That's the worst
weekly point decline since 1987.
Two months ago I wrote about Fed Chairman Greenspan's opinion on the stock
market "bubble" and his belief that it could be broken without causing a
depression. Is this what he's trying to do now? In his speech Thursday
night
to the bankers he talked about the risk of loan collateral, if based on
stocks, deteriorating significantly. Over the years, Mr. Greenspan has often
given veiled advance warning for something that he intends to do.
Is he really trying to engineer a market decline, which in case it becomes
more serious than he had intended, could always be blamed on Y2K?
Whatever the reason, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that they are on
the warpath against a strong economy and against a strong stock market.
There's an old saying, which is probably the best advice you can ever get:
"never fight the Fed."
If you have followed my advice over the past several months, you would now be
either totally in cash, or only lightly exposed to the stock market. We
can't
always catch the little wiggles, and at times one gets whipsawed. But the
major trend is going according to our script.
On the economic front today, the Producer Price Index rose a sharp 1.1% for
the month, which is higher than a 12% annual rate. Many of the factors
driving it up were one-time aberrations. Once you factor them out, the
number
was not much away from normal. However, the inflation scenario I outlined in
this month's Bert Dohmen's WELLINGTON LETTER is on track, and will preoccupy
the Federal Reserve. They will act on the prices of raw materials rising,
assuming that these will filter down to the retail level. The assumption
will
be wrong, but we cannot change their minds.
I wish you a happy bear market.
Bert Dohmen
*************************
ABOUT BERT DOHMEN: Bert Dohmen is president and founder of Dohmen Capital
Research Institute, Inc.(DCRI) He has achieved an international reputation
for his expertise in forecasting the major investment markets, interest
rates,
and economic trends.
Bert Dohmen is known as a Fed watcher and a contrarian. You may have seen
him
on Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week," CNN's "Moneyline," or CNBC Financial
News Network. He is frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, BARRON'S,
Business Week, and other leading publications. He was ranked one of the
"Top
Ten Stock Market Timers" (including a number one ranking.) Bert Dohmen's
WELLINGTON LETTER was rated #1 in the United States in a national survey by
Futures magazine.
Bert Dohmen's WELLINGTON LETTER is an award-winning monthly investment
newsletter with an impressive 22 year track record. His readers have
prospered in bull and bear markets alike. Not only can he show you where and
when to invest during fantastic bull markets like today, but he can get you
out of dangerous situations, as in 1994 when his readers were able to
sidestep
major disasters such as the US Treasury Bonds, the Dow Jones Utilities, the
US
Stock Market and the emerging markets.
Regularly $350, but we are offering subscribers from the Internet a special
rate of only $295 for 1 year. Or try a 3-month trial for $89! (Non-
refundable) Call (808) 545-2243 to sign up today.
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investors manage their own mutual fund portfolio. There is a choice of six
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allocations are given. Recommendations are faxed or e-mailed to subscribers.
It's the ideal way to avoid the high cost of managed accounts or financial
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Dohmen. Starting for as little as $45 per month.
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who want to trade stocks, options and mutual funds on a short term basis for
potentially very exciting profits. Our goal is to make a minimum return in
two
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is
done with absolute risk control. Non-refundable 12 week trial, only $699.
For more information about these services call (800) 992-9989 or Fax your
subscription to (808) 545-1994 or send via e-mail: dohmcap@xxxxxxx
1998 copyright DOHMEN CAPITAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.
1132 Bishop Street, Suite 1500, Honolulu, HI 96813
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT http://www.dohmencapital.com FOR YOUR FREE MARKET
COMMENTARY, CHARTS & REAL AUDIO!
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