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I love "conspiracies theories". The latest one I could recall was that Jews
currency traders conspired to "keel" the economy of one Asian nation,
according to its prime minister.
As of gold stocks, following my misunderstanding of XAU monthly chart I
"officially" declared a bull market at the end of September 1999. If the
bull market has started it "should" run up for about four months up
non-stop, then react for about 2 month, and then reach the final top in
about 3 to 4 months.
The test of my assumption is the October 1999 close. XAU must close the
month above 84 (to pick a safe number) for the bull market to continue.
Should the monthly close be lower then I made a mistake (making mistakes is
my regular full time job) and bull marked in XAU has not started (as some
very knowledgeable people belive) and XAU is in a trading range.
If XAU is in bull market is has very special consequences for the stock
market. Recently (1986-87, 1993-1994) the bull market in XAU coincide with
the last leg in the bull market phase of the cycle (before "certified" bear
market started). So if XAU will go up, stock market will continue the up
move, and we could estimate the time of the stock market top in this bull
phase.
Permanently confused, always wrong, Alex.
At 01:10 PM 10/15/99 -0700, nwinski wrote:
>
>
>Gary Fritz wrote:
>
>> OK, rather than argue about Le Metropole reposts, how about we
>> actually talk about what the gold market is doing?
>>
>> Based on all the furor over Larry's posts, I've been watching the
>> silver & gold markets lately. Looks like they tanked fairly severely
>> (5%) in the last 2 days. I would have guessed the PPI numbers and
>> AG's comments would have *lifted* gold, not killed it. On the other
>> hand, the drop started midday yesterday, so something else must have
>> started it.
>>
>> Any guesses what caused this sudden drop, and how far it's likely to
>> go?
>>
>> The XAU is down about 17% from its high a few weeks ago. Maybe the
>> price pop was just a temporary aberration, and it's going to continue
>> on its downward course now?
>>
>> Seems to me, though, that if the stock markets start to tank (which
>> seems more and more likely) that gold will likely find new strength.
>> Correct?
>>
>> Gary
>
> The recent gold rally was the result of a conspiracy to bail out the
>major gold dealers at the expense of a few large but weak short sellers,
>i.e. Martin Armstrong. You may remember that
>Warren Buffet, a few years ago, had a press conference to announce that
>he had been buying silver.
>The silver ran for about one week and then that was the top for the past
>three years. In the same light,
>the big gold dealers had their announcement that gold should go up. Guess
>why? You don't suppose they may have owned larger amounts of gold sold to
>them by the Central Banks and needed to get out? My best guess is that
>gold can and will go down with the stock market, assuming that the stock
>market continues lower, and that Gold will see $250 before it sees $350.
> By the way, I bet a careful investigation of the Cafe Le Metropole
>would reveal it is being funded
>or controlled by the same gold dealers and Central Banks who engineered
>this rally.
>
>Contrarily,
>
> /\/
>\/\/
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