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ROBERT ROESKE wrote:
> Let's ask the opposite question also, "How high can it go?". The last three
> times the OEX came off the 670 level it had sizeable gains in one or more
> days. The time the modified Hines ratio hit the outright buy calls level on
> September 3 the OEX had a 20.39 up move the next day. October 4th it had a
> 12.62 up. August 13 it had 16.4 up. June 28 it had a run all the way to
> 735. Sentiment is even more negative today than previously and the dollar,
> interest rates, inflation environments, earnings are being looked at with a
> microscope this time. Also tax loss selling and Y2k were not as
> influential.
>
> BobRoeske
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
> To: swingmachine <swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 1999 3:31 PM
> Subject: [SM] How far can it go 10/13/99
>
> > Well, as markets are prone to do, this one did NOT tak a breather
> > today as I had anticipated but went right on down.
> >
> > Yesterday I mentioned that there had been 28 swings from similar
> > market conditions in the past 3 years (that is all the 30 minute data
> > I have).
> >
> > Today, to hell with finding the best method of projecting things,
> > just show of those 28 swings that have occurred any that could
> > still be met TIME and/or PRICE wise in this run.
> >
> > That is the picture today. Worst case was a swing that would
> > take us to 580 over the next 4 days.
> >
> > All the other possibilities are displayed -- no summing -- no
> > nuttin -- just the facts!!!
> >
> > Clyde
> >
> >
> >
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
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> Encoding: base64
There are several wave counts here, the one that has the highest probability, at
least statistically, is an early morning low on the SPX cash index at or near
the 1270-75 level, made in the first hour or two of trading. This should be
followed by a dramatic short-covering rally into the close, with the 1310 CASH
area being the target. An 'A-B-C' corrective rally that completes at Thursday's
close or early Friday. Then down like a rock to re-test the 1260's by the
18th-19th Bradley cycle turn.
Jim
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