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In a message dated 10/11/99 11:41:11 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Proffittak
writes:
<< In a message dated 10/11/99 9:35:51 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< I believe there is a theory of Probability that is based on Brownian
motion.
I know that if one takes 20,000 5 min bar closes and takes the
difference then put the
differences in bins that the resulting curve has tails at the
extremes...
The key is that one must learn to understand when the market is brownian
moving and when its not. ie panic.. When its moving in its
statistically correct manner then it adheres to the laws of the normal
distribution..
One of the interesting questions to ask your self is will you make more
money over time playing
2 standard deviation moves or one standard deviation moves?
Don Thompson >>
that question is already answered
the probability of going short at 1 std div is only 33% acurate
at 2 std div is aprox 80% acurate
my optimum is at 2.1 std div with 13 day exp m/a
you can test that in t.s
regards
Ben >>
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