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<DIV>Bob -</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In no way was I suggesting that probability does not play into market
movement. I was saying that the market is not random. Like I said, I have no
idea what the book is even about! Just that if it propounds efficient market
theory/random walk, it is doomed to live in the next door cubicle to Malkiel and
others that have fought and loss the random walk war.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Steve</DIV>
<DIV><BR>---<BR>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies
Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email: <A
href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>ROBERT
ROESKE</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxx";
title=swp@xxxxxxxxxx>swp</A> ; <A href="mailto:gposnak1@xxxxxxxx";
title=gposnak1@xxxxxxxx>gposnak</A> ; <A
href="mailto:0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 11, 1999 8:21
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Probability</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There is absolutely no question in my mind and experience
that probability plays a big part in support and resistance. This is
true for intraday and end of day implied volatility forecasts for expected
price range. It is so accurate that prices fall within 0.01 of the
probability line that it is uncanny. Watch the OEX and the Cone levels
tomorrow. LOL and all the way to the bank! I think Clyde Lee would
also agree. PS: no code available for distribution.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobRoeske</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
swp </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:gposnak1@xxxxxxxx";
title=gposnak1@xxxxxxxx>gposnak</A> ; <A
href="mailto:0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 11, 1999 11:45
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Probability</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I have never read the book you quoted, but anybody that believes that
stock prices move in a random fashion I want on the other side of my trades!
LOL</DIV>
<DIV><BR>---<BR>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies
Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email:
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
gposnak
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>0Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 11, 1999 1:19
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Probability</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I have been studying Probability and
statistics and wonder if there is a site similar to RT where the
discussion emphasizes the statistical approach to the markets? After 20
years I finally read Cootner's book "Random Character of Stock Market
Prices". I had to go back and relearn statistics 101 to even begin to
understand the math in this book. Anyone else ever read this
book?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>George</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Oct 11 20:08:51 1999
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Date: Mon, 11 Oct 1999 20:41:26 -0500
From: "Donald E. Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Probability
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Status:
I believe there is a theory of Probability that is based on Brownian
motion.
I know that if one takes 20,000 5 min bar closes and takes the
difference then put the
differences in bins that the resulting curve has tails at the
extremes...
The key is that one must learn to understand when the market is brownian
moving and when its not. ie panic.. When its moving in its
statistically correct manner then it adheres to the laws of the normal
distribution..
One of the interesting questions to ask your self is will you make more
money over time playing
2 standard deviation moves or one standard deviation moves?
Don Thompson
> ROBERT ROESKE wrote:
>
> There is absolutely no question in my mind and experience that
> probability plays a big part in support and resistance. This is true
> for intraday and end of day implied volatility forecasts for expected
> price range. It is so accurate that prices fall within 0.01 of the
> probability line that it is uncanny. Watch the OEX and the Cone
> levels tomorrow. LOL and all the way to the bank! I think Clyde Lee
> would also agree. PS: no code available for distribution.
>
> BobRoeske
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