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Generally, have been constructive on what looked like bottoming action in
the grains however the lack of clear price patterns and sloppy volume and
open interest action discouraged me from making a commitment My trading
plan for 30Sep called for a planned long entry in Dec Meal at 5120 however I
didn't like the sloppy action in the rest of the grains and cancelled. On
the subject of stops ... when I day traded I was very aggressive with my
stop however position requires a softer hand. Generally I like to start with
a stop a tick or so away from spike action where stops have been obviously
cleared or an inside day setup occurs and then trail around 3 extension days
behind. I will snap them in close if I see a bar pattern which would setup a
reversal day, then back off a bit if the reversal does not occur.
Generally, I would agree that a strong breakout opening should not retrace
and I would be looking to protect against such an occurrence. The way I look
at it - traders stock fuel in the form of buy/sell stops at critical market
points and if a strong breakout occurs which burns all the fuel and the
rocket turns around and heads for the launch pad, it's time to scratch the
trade. This is obviously what happened in the beans and meal today and I
would rather be out of the trade than be in. That said, I've had such
tactics backfire. This happened recently on the 22Sep reversal bar in Dec BP
which reversed again the next day. All one has in this business are odds,
not certainties, and the odds don't favor reversals being reversed the next
day. While I left thousands in profit still on the table, I knew that the
odds favored loss of capital had I stuck with the trade so I did not apply
the required 20 lashes for tactical mistakes..
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Howard Hopkins <hehohop@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, October 08, 1999 9:52 AM
Subject: Soybean & Soymeal Sentiment
> RT's,
>
> I polling again for opinion on the markets in an effort to "create" my own
> small sampling of Realtrader's opinions.
>
> I bought Jan Beans and Dec Meal yesterday am on stops at 501 1/2 and
151.60
> respectively. I bought because they were the strongest of the grains and
> broke out of symmetrical triangles which coincided with the brokeout near
> the right shoulder of a head & shoulders top. Todays action was favorable
> but I don't think prices should retrace to my entry points after such a
> strong opening move, so I've already brought my stops to breakeven.
>
> Where do the rest of you guys/gals (Gwenn) stand on these markets?
>
> Thanks,
> Howard
>
> ______________________________________________________
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