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Those who follow sugar might want to take a look at the volume and open
interest for the past 10-12 trading days and especially the past couple of
days. Nuts and bolts, with the exception of 27Sep, volume has declined
noticeably when prices have declined and expanded when prices have rallied.
The 3 trading days prior to 6Oct (volume not available yet for 6Oct) showed
sharp declines in price (especially 5Oct) and minimal contract volume.
During the 4 higher volume trading days 27-30Sep, prices declined on only
one of the 4 days and open interest dropped by 15%. Further, 6Oct closed as
a reversal day after bouncing sharply from Fibonacci and pivot support. I
believe we will shortly retest the highs and will be building a long
position in sugar.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 5:29 AM
Subject: Re: Sugar
> For the time being, I generally agree in direction although I was happy to
> walk away with only 100 points per car on my last sugar trade out of the
> tight congestion around 600. I believe it's headed back to 630-640 area
> basis Mar00 in what looks like a nearly completed 5 wave corrective
decline
> which has failed to mount any significant distribution (viewed by OBV)
while
> open interest has declined significantly. Should the congestion area fail
to
> hold, the weekly charts would confirm the entire rally as an ABC
corrective
> rally and the monthly would charts portend a rather nasty 5th wave decline
> into the area of the 85 lows around 260.
>
> Until I see evidence to the contrary, I am standing aside and watching for
> opportunity to go long for a relatively long term position trade.
>
> Earl
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