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I'm definitely for this if we can figure anyway to compile a sentiment
indicator for each market. Maybe on a weekly basis? Any of you computer
gurus know how we can do this?
HHH
>From: "Kohath" <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: "Kohath" <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>, "RealTraders Discussion Group"
><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: AW: FOMC meeting?
>Date: Tue, 5 Oct 1999 12:43:49 -0700
>
>We should have a survey each day on the Bearishnesh, bullishness,
>nuetralness of the members of this forum, compile the list, analyse it, and
>determine if using such a list would contribute as another indicator,
>contrarian or protarian, to help make trades. Sort of what they do on
>CNBC.
>I don't put much stock in the indicators they produce on CNBC, unless, of
>course, one would use it more as a contrarian to the contrarian indicators.
>Any for this.
>Matt
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: BobsKC
>To: ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx ; RealTraders Discussion Group
>Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 10:07 AM
>Subject: Re: AW: FOMC meeting?
>
>
>Ahhh.... The wall of worry! We climb it while screaming armagedden over
>and over and over and still, we do it. In fact, we *must* do it or bull
>markets would fail. The mails to this list proclaiming bubbles, (aka bull
>markets), are about to burst, only substantiate that the climb up the wall
>is continuing. Should nearly everyone on this list begin to proclaim we
>are past the problems, that the bubble was really a hot air balloon to
>prosperity and that the indices have only begun to rise.... *get out*.
>
>Oh, I too am not so sure we won't see an increase of 1/4 pt today with a
>neutral bias. Almost as good as no increase since everyone will then be
>convinced the series has ended. Without an increase, worrywarts will just
>begin to worry about Nov. For me, I would like to see the final 1/4 point
>taken back and a return to focusing on earnings.
>
>Bob
>
>At 05:20 PM 10/5/99 +0100, Gwenael Gautier wrote:
> >Ouch that hurts... Well I hope this is not to happen. Problem with
>bubbles
>is
> >that they are recognized as obvious bubbles only after the fact. There
>are
>many
> >situations that are comparable to bubbles but which never burst so they
>are not
> >recognized as bubbles.It was said before 1987 we are in a bubble, and we
>had a
> >crash and the bull we had after just dwarfed the previous, so where is
>the
>true
> >bubble?
> >
> >still bubbling,
> >
> >Gwenn
> >
> >
> >
> >| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> >| Von: Earl Adamy [SMTP:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> >| Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 1:32 PM
> >| An: RealTraders Discussion Group
> >| Betreff: Re: FOMC meeting?
> >|
> >| AG is responsible for guiding the monetary and interest rate policies
>of
>the
> >| US and this includes managing and preventing excessive speculation and
> >| consumption whether it be in banking, real estate, credit, or stock
>markets.
> >| Allowing bubbles to build and then explode wrecks the economy for
>everyone,
> >| not just the irresponsible speculators - clearly an area where
>government
> >| has a responsibility to act. Early in his career, AG wrote some papers
>on
> >| the crash of 29 which criticized the central bankers for allowing
>excessive
> >| speculation and credit to grow unabated. Just a few years ago, AG had
>it
> >| right when he spoke of "irrational exuberance", however he was
>unwilling
>to
> >| pay the (probably very substantial) political price of raising interest
>and
> >| margin rates to head off the bubble. Nor have our central bankers and
> >| politicians been willing to bring an end to the import of endless cheap
> >| goods which have held inflation in check and spurred consumption while
> >| exporting a major portion of the US manufacturing base and building an
> >| incredible trade deficit. Consequently, by most historical measures, US
> >| equity and credit markets have bubbled to the point where a prick of
>the
> >| bubble poses a serious threat to not only the US economy, but the world
> >| economy as well.
> >|
> >| When the bubble does burst, as it inevitably will, the retirement
>savings
> >| and pension plans of at least two generations will be placed in
>jeopardy.
> >| Not only are these generations at risk of losing their financial
> >| independence, but government tax coffers shorn of the stock market tax
> >| bonanza will be incapable of providing a safety net. Further, US
>workers
> >| will wake up to find that few are in a position to support the huge US
> >| service economy and that there are few manufacturing jobs remaining. In
> >| short, what happened in Japan in 1989 won't begin to compare to what
>will
> >| happen in the US when the bubble bursts.
> >|
> >| Earl
> >|
> >| ----- Original Message -----
> >| From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >| To: 'James Taylor' <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion
>Group
> >| <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >| Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 2:05 AM
> >| Subject: AW: FOMC meeting?
> >|
> >|
> >| > People make their own decisions and choices. Whether Mr G. was right
>or
> >| wrong
> >| > to make the decisions he made remains to be seen in hindsight, but it
>is
> >| people
> >| > who acted on their own buying these stocks, working for these
>companies
> >| that
> >| > lay off, did not start their own companies, did not buy the stocks,
> >| speculated
> >| > short term instead of holding long term, or bought houses and cars
>instead
> >| of
> >| > stocks, or the reverse, borrowed instead of saved. How can you say G.
>is
> >| > responsible for what people do. As you mentionned most are
>irrational,
>and
> >| do
> >| > irrational things and then complain about unexpected results... Well,
>you
> >| bet!
> >| > That shouldn't be a surprise, but I don't see what G. is doing in
>there.
> >| >
> >| > Gwenn
> >| >
> >| >
> >| >
> >| > | -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> >| > | Von: James Taylor [SMTP:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> >| > | Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 4:06 AM
> >| > | An: RAY RAFFURTY; fritz@xxxxxxxx; RealTraders Discussion Group
> >| > | Betreff: Re: FOMC meeting?
> >| > |
> >| > | If the scum-sucker Greenspan has any spine at all, he will raise
> >| tomorrow,
> >| > | and catch the gambling public flat-footed. This 'man' (and I use
>the
> >| term
> >| > | loosely) will be hated by tens of millions of American's when this
>ponzi
> >| > | scheme finally ends. A heck of a lot of innocent, hard-working
>citizens
> >| > | will be hurt by his past bubble cultivation. When the blind-sided
> >| public
> >| > | end up unemployed, their families put on the street, and hungry,
>this
> >| joker
> >| > | will think long and hard about the choices he made. I wouldn't
>want
>to
> >| be
> >| > | him. Rednecks don't act rationally when they are hungry and cold.
> >| > |
> >| > | Signed,
> >| > | an informed student of economics and government mismanagement and
> >| deception
> >| > |
> >| > | -------------
> >| > |
> >| > | At 09:42 PM 10/4/99 -0400, RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
> >| > | >Hi Gary,
> >| > | >
> >| > | >Actually, to get a jump on the Fed. meeting tune into CNBC at
>about
> >| 8:00 AM
> >| > | >EST for Mr. Greenspan's briefcase indicator. It has been correct
> >| something
> >| > | >like 18 out of the last 19 times. {;-)
> >| > | >
> >| > | > Good luck and good
>trading,
> >| > | >
> >| > | > Ray
>Raffurty
> >| > | >
> >| > | >
> >| > | >----- Original Message -----
> >| > | >From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
> >| > | >To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >| > | >Sent: Monday, October 04, 1999 4:34 PM
> >| > | >Subject: FOMC meeting?
> >| > | >
> >| > | >
> >| > | >> I'm holding a long position into tomorrow and I figured I'd
>check...
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >> The FOMC meeting starts tommorrow morning at 0900 ET. But there
>is
> >| > | >> usually not any impact from the *start* of the meeting, right?
>Any
> >| > | >> fireworks, if any are to happen, shouldn't launch until they
>announce
> >| > | >> on Thursday at 1400 ET?
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >> The market doesn't seem to think Mr. G. will drop any bombs on
> >| > | >> Thursday, given the run-up since Friday afternoon. Anybody want
>to
> >| > | >> hazard any predictions?
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >> Thanks,
> >| > | >> Gary
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >>
> >| > | >
> >| > | >
> >| > | >
> >|
> >
>
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