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During the aftermath of what is fast approaching, when the hearings and
analysis of what went wrong commences, you will learn the real deal on this
Greenspan character. He is public enemy number one in my opinion.
Excerpts from Secrets of the Temple, How the Federal Reserve Runs the
Country: (into the ground)
June 2, 1988
"The Administration wanted a Fed chairman who would not only collaborate
more intimately with the White
House but who was sensitive to the present risks of recession."
"The Reagan White House felt satisfied that the new Federal Reserve
chairman would be more accomodating
and less stubborn than the old one. Greenspan had a long association with
Republican politics and a reputation
as a 'pragmatist' who liked to work out a consensus with others.
Furthermore, for more than a year and a half,
he had worried aloud at many public forums about the weakened state of the
economy and the need to avert a
recession at all costs, while so many debtors were in trouble."
At 06:02 PM 10/5/99 -0400, Howard Berg wrote:
>Only because someone ( a student) on this forum calls Alfred Greenspan all
>kinds of names it does make me wonder where the writer comes from. Pretty
>tough to criticize a 73 year old guy who has some pretty hefty credentials
>with years of experience in economics.. And a record that is pretty tough to
>beat doing the tough job that all benchmarks of opinion refer to as being
>superlative.
> I thought things were pretty good in this country right now. I'm old
>enough to remember when they were not (in the '30's). The writer referred
>to says he is a student. Could he do a better job than Mr . Greenspan? I
>seriously doubt it. I do not have to defend Mr. Greenspan nor do I agree
>with everything he is doing. Like a lot if us. But I know he is doing the
>best job that he knows how to for the country and its people.
>
> Howard Berg
>-----Original Message-----
>From: James Taylor <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RAY RAFFURTY <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>; Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 11:28 AM
>Subject: Re: Fw: FOMC meeting?
>
>
>>While I have 'zero' confidence that the Fed will do the right thing, I
>>think that there is a good chance that they will raise rates today. They
>>can always give it back in November or December if they see that the market
>>is taking on too much water at that time. They will be less inclined to
>>raise too close to the end of the year. The Nasdaq is about 2% from its
>>all time high, and the Dow and S&P are not that far from their highs.
>>Nasdaq up almost 100% since last October trading at a collective 120 times
>>earnings. The time is now to raise, and yes the briefcase was very thick.
>>Not as thick as the skull unfortunately.
>>
>>
>>----------
>>At 09:49 AM 10/5/99 -0400, RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
>>>
>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>From: RAY RAFFURTY <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>
>>>To: <joachim@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 9:15 AM
>>>Subject: Re: FOMC meeting?
>>>
>>>
>>>> Hi John,
>>>>
>>>> The briefcase indicator says the Fed. WILL raise today. For those of
>you
>>>> who do not know how this works: On the morning of the Fed meeting CNBC
>>>> stakes out the entrance to the building and records the size of Chairman
>>>> Greenspan's briefcase. A fat bulging briefcase, especially with papers
>>>> sticking out, indicates a change in rates, up or down. A thin briefcase
>>>> indicates no change. The direction is determined by common sense.
>>>>
>>>> It works on the theory that to change rates, more information (papers)
>is
>>>> required than to keep rates the same. To date it has been very accurate
>>>but
>>>> is always subject to error.
>>>>
>>>> Good luck and good trading,
>>>>
>>>> Ray Raffurty
>>>>
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: <joachim@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> To: RAY RAFFURTY <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>
>>>> Sent: Monday, October 04, 1999 10:32 PM
>>>> Subject: Re: FOMC meeting?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> > Ray....how about a small one liner after the Greenspan's briefcase
>>>> > indicator....... for those of us who are not tune into CNBC
>>>> >
>>>> > Thanks
>>>> >
>>>> > john
>>>> >
>>>> > RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > > Hi Gary,
>>>> > >
>>>> > > Actually, to get a jump on the Fed. meeting tune into CNBC at about
>>>8:00
>>>> AM
>>>> > > EST for Mr. Greenspan's briefcase indicator. It has been correct
>>>> something
>>>> > > like 18 out of the last 19 times. {;-)
>>>> > >
>>>> > > Good luck and good
>>>trading,
>>>> > >
>>>> > > Ray Raffurty
>>>> > >
>>>> > > ----- Original Message -----
>>>> > > From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
>>>> > > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> > > Sent: Monday, October 04, 1999 4:34 PM
>>>> > > Subject: FOMC meeting?
>>>> > >
>>>> > > > I'm holding a long position into tomorrow and I figured I'd
>check...
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > The FOMC meeting starts tommorrow morning at 0900 ET. But there
>is
>>>> > > > usually not any impact from the *start* of the meeting, right?
>Any
>>>> > > > fireworks, if any are to happen, shouldn't launch until they
>>>announce
>>>> > > > on Thursday at 1400 ET?
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > The market doesn't seem to think Mr. G. will drop any bombs on
>>>> > > > Thursday, given the run-up since Friday afternoon. Anybody want
>to
>>>> > > > hazard any predictions?
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > > Thanks,
>>>> > > > Gary
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > >
>>>> > > >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
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