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I think it is about time we really started to take HISTORY
seriously and not a SELECTIVE MEMORY OF HISTORY.
In the "picture" attached to Bill's erudite and totally incorrect
TA concept, he says "THE DOUBLE BOTTOM that was just CRYING
OUT TO be bought".
Well lets take a look at REAL AND HONEST AND NO SELECTIVE MEMORY
history.
The SwingMachine program does nothing more than collect historical
data about patterns of swings. In this case the DOUBLE BOTTOM is
a swing pattern that SM identifies with the numbers 0-7-0 at the
turning points which make up this double bottom.
Given this combination and looking back through a continuous
contract of futures prices which reaches back to 1975. The
system found a total of 18 such bottoms.
I have had the system display ALL 18 of the swings that it found
AFTER the occurrence of such bottoms so that we do not get
confused by any kind of averaging of swings. Remember, these
prices are all taken from ratios computed at the time the
price pattern originally occurred and that these ratios to the
close at the time of recapping the historical patterns is used.
Only 3 of the 18 price patterns that have followed such DOUBLE
BOTTOMS in the past have been remotely worth buying.
It is on this basis that I challenge the CRYING TO BE BOUGHT
STATEMENT whether it was made before or after the fact does not
enter into the discussion at all.
I simply appeal to ALL to LOOK AT REAL HISTORY WHENEVER WE MAKE
ANY KIND OF STATEMENT ABOUT WHAT WE ARE PREDICTING OR WERE
PREDICTING AT SOME GIVEN POINT IN TIME.
Clyde Lee
> t-bondtrader wrote:
>
> Norm and Stig - thought you might like to see a simple TA concept
> that I apply to the bonds whenever it occurs. I do actually trade
> Gold with options on a 'for fun' basis even though I do not think it
> funny when the Bank of England helps to drive the market down, with
> our reserves. But having done so, the Double Bottom setup had to
> be worth a punt...
>
> Bill Eykyn
> www.t-bondrader.com
>
> Stig O wrote:
>
> > There are some interesting coincidences with regard to
> > the recent goldprice.Or is it the Natural Order we are
> > witnessing? The green line is the Main resistance line
> > from the 1980 high. Magenta lines are Andrews Pitchfork
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
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