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In a message dated 9/30/99 10:47:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< Ben says: start 01/11/1973 - 2/13/1980 (Dow only got back to
even!!!! after 7 years)
So I did a simple MA crossover system for that period. One sells or buys on
price closing below/above the MA, uses the prior swing high/low as a trailing
stop. Decent, during that period. Indecent, during the only non-trend period.
Monthly, Weekly, Daily.
Learning: MA crossovers do not work in non-trending markets. Change tactics.
One size, we learn, does not fit all.
Maybe the humint element will tell us that price behavior has changed from
trending to non-trending before the system shock significantly damages our
account and psychology.
Ditto when I look at 1963, as Earl suggests. Same system, same result.
And I'm not even swing trading.
Then I think to myself, heck, we trade bear markets in commodities all the
time. I know for a fact that Earl and Ben are accomplished cross-market
traders. Therefore, what is the big deal here anyway ?
I am forwarding charts to illustrate my statements, since pictures speak
louder than words.
Once again, I am stirring up discussion to issues we seem to be taking for
granted (e.g. 1 or 2 systems should work in all market patterns; or a deeper
issue of a trader's (the subjective humint factor) causes the trader more
harm than good - hence the need for a system to start with).
A bear market is a bear market. Wealth destruction is never any good. But we
are talking trading here. Does it really make a difference where price goes,
as long as we can capture the fallout of that price move ?
Comments welcome. Charts follow this email, separately due to bandwidth
restrictions.
Regards
Gitanshu
>>
Hello
Happy to see we are back to trading
you make a lot of vaild points
even i can learn from you.
this is why i join the list
regards
Ben
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