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> Thanks Stig--found it very helpful. Nice to see good copy about
> the fundamentals without all the hype and self promotion
> attached. The task for any us now, is finding low risk
> opportunities as set ups to re-enter the metal market
> successfully. Blind faith in someone else's understanding of the
> fundamentals, as
> we all know from experience, can be devastating.
>
> I sold all my silver futures and most of the gold calls day before
> yesterday simply by recognizing the markets had all the symptoms
> of a blow off top. However, I bought back some Dec Silver today
> because of a rule I use to trade around inside days: buy the
> gap-down opening of the first day that follows an inside
> day-down, against a rising trend. That got me safely past
> break-even with the slightly higher close today. Gold didn't gap
> down, so I didn't buy it. This trade, however, is usually only
> good for the extent of the second day. It would seldom serve as
> a trigger to new highs after the trading range we saw in
> silver the day before yesterday, otherwise it can be. After a
> possible up day Friday (tomorrow), I would either exit at the
> close or play a tight stop into the efp night session. (Thank
> God for the efp in gold and silver or I wouldn't play the futures
> at all). Hope this helps. Good luck with your positions.
>
> Scheier
> PS Keep the charts comin', you do such good work.
>
> Stig O wrote:
>
> > With the risk of being drowned by hate mail I'm including one of
> those GATA mails, The reason is that being long gold and being
> long goldstocks, is not neccesary the same thing during present
> circumstances , and if you do (I do) own goldstocks, I think you
> should read the post below, even if it's not confirmed.
> > I am also including an adress were you can see the lease rate
> for gold. It's really scary - and if you did read the article "The
> gold Pyramide"I included in one of my last posts, It's REALLY
> scary. (for lease rates. http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html )
>
> >
> > I am also including a monthly chart of Palladium and gold from
> 1978, so you can visualize what the guy is talking about.
> >
> > Regards
> > stig
> >
> > -Emne: [GATA] No sell signal until there's a bankruptcy
> >
> > >11:25p EDT Tuesday, September 28, 1999
> > >
> > >Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
> > >
> > >What I'm sending below is just an anonymous post at the
> > >Kitco board tonight, purporting to be from a Wall
> > >Street trader, so you have to take it even more
> > >skeptically than most things. But it may have the ring
> > >of truth and I know you'll enjoy it as much as I did.
> > >
> > >CHRIS POWELL, Secretary
> > >Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
> > >
> > >* * *
> > >
> > >>From www.kitco.com
> > >
> > >September 28, 1999
> > >
> > >Gold looks to be following the palladium script. Both
> > >markets were artificially sold down, both had large
> > >supply/demand deficits financed by producer and spec
> > >short selling plus the added kicker of government
> > >liquidation of stockpiles. Both markets imbued the
> > >players with the same sense of one-wayedness, and that
> > >way was down. Both turned on a dime. One market is in
> > >its 3rd year of bulling, while the other has snorted
> > >for barely a week.
> > >
> > >If palladium is the guidepost, then the big lesson to
> > >be learned, is not to lose your position.
> > >
> > >Markets which have been one way for a very long time
> > >often turn explosively and give little or no chance for
> > >bulls or bears waiting for a pullback. It would not be
> > >at all surprising for the price of gold to go straight
> > >up until it reaches a price which might be a high for
> > >many, many months, perhaps even a year. This will
> > >ensure that bears waiting to cover get slaughtered, and
> > >would be bulls never make a dime, or buy at the local
> > >top, because they were waiting for the pullback that
> > >never came.
> > >
> > >In this environment the only technical indicator that I
> > >would put any stock in is the lease rate. If it is true
> > >that central bank leasing is now on hold, then changes
> > >to the lease rate are now purely a function of loan
> > >demand. Loan demand only rises as a function of
> > >speculator or more likely now, producer short selling.
> > >It falls as producers or specs do buybacks or specs get
> > >long.
> > >
> > >Today lease rates went higher. The order flow at one
> > >desk which gives me some info indicated that producers
> > >were selling into this rally. They are insane.
> > >
> > >If this is going to be a really "big" move in gold,
> > >which seems quite likely, then there are going to be
> > >some producer casualties before this thing is over,
> > >along with the bullion banks which supplied them with
> > >the dope ... errrr ... gold.
> > >
> > >Back in the last great coffee rally in '94 (I think)
> > >the price of coffee started from a low of around 80
> > >cents. At this point according to market lore,
> > >Starbucks, one of the biggest consumers, could not find
> > >it within themselves to buy any price protection. You
> > >see, coffee was going to $0.60. At $3.00 the same
> > >geniuses hedged about 18 months worth of consumption,
> > >oops.
> > >
> > >There are lots of rumors currently flying around the
> > >market about Mr. Armstrong's position, which is
> > >supposedly still uncovered. Rumor has it that the
> > >counter-parties are going to take a big hit.
> > >
> > >There is still the matter of millions and millions of
> > >ounces of calls sitting from 360 on upwards. They
> > >together will act as a giant attractor sucking the gold
> > >price into an accelerating upward spiral.
> > >
> > >They are the evidence of the real story which is the
> > >producer hedge book, which is going up in flames.
> > >There will be some companies that did their hedging by
> > >selling tons of out of the money calls 'knowing' that
> > >they could always delta hedge them back if things
> > >started to rally. The models did not call for the price
> > >of gold to go vertical with a concommitant rise in
> > >option vols.
> > >
> > >I'm still waiting to see the headline which I've spoken
> > >of in the past, GOLD RISES $60, XYZ Gold Declares
> > >Bankruptcy.
> > >
> > >That will be the sell signal, and not a day before.
> > >
> > >-END-
> > >
> >
> >------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > >
> > >eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/gata
> > >http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > Name: PALL.gif
> > PALL.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
> >
> > Name: GOLDFAN.gif
> > GOLDFAN.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
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