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<DIV><FONT size=2>The McClellan Oscillator provides some interesting clues
regarding direction. First, history shows that MO levels which reach below
200 are generally retested and we have not retested the August lows. Second,
when the MO falls below a previous pivot low without reaching 100+, it generally
indicates a failure swing is imminent - this occurred on Thursday. VIX has been
moving between buy/sell levels for two months now, however it did not reach
the extreme levels which generally confirms solid bottoms in the MO. Generally,
I'm expecting a further decline and have been trading short positions since the
25Aug high although the sharp rallies have taken back most of the
profits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Since the Dec SP breached the 16Jul/10Aug symmetrical
triangle, I'm assuming that the serious decline may be ready to begin. I would
like to see a bit more rally to get the VIX down to 22 or lower but one has to
take it as it comes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I do think that one needs to keep a sharp eye on the
ValueLine which appears to have completed a wave B rally, the ND 100
which is the only index which has exhibited any significant strength and on
the weekly S&P which remains bullish but is showing a possible Head and
Shoulders top beginning in March.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>ROBERT
ROESKE</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Realtraders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, September 18, 1999 6:07
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> MKT - NYA</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Just wondering how others are interpreting the current NYA
pattern and McClellan Oscillator configuration. It looks to me like
there is a bearish triangle with a decending top and essentially flat
bottom. As the vertex of the price triangle is approached the McClellan
Oscillator is showing extreme weakness in a down channel. Some may be
misinterpreting the oscillator at this time as saying it is oversold when in
fact it can become twice as oversold if the NYA drops through support in the
closing weeks of the quarter. It also seems like there should be massive
tax loss selling this year since the advance decline line has been dropping
for a significantly long time. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Bob Roeske</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 20 06:41:19 1999
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Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 00:42:57 -0700
To: "ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx" <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
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From: Alexander Levitin <alevitin@xxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: AW: Great Bull Market
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Status:
At 09:01 AM 9/20/99 +0100, Gwenael Gautier wrote:
> ... one can end up having one opinion and have an opposite position. I
found out, this happens quite
>often... I include that in the "Divorce your ego" rule.
>
A friend of my was sitting in the trading room of one of the great trader
of our time (let me skip the name as he is very well known, but I belive it
to be a true story). The trader was explaining to my friend how bad US
bonds are, that they (bonds) have no place to go but down, that the crash
is immanent and the only logical possibilities in the present circumstances.
During the conversation the trader was watching the screen and from time to
time picked up the telephone and give the orders to buy another 1000 cars,
then another 1000 cars ... My friend could not hold it any longer and asked
the trader: "If you are so negative on bonds, how come that you continue to
buy them?"
The trader took a long look at my friend and said: "I can not afford my
personal opinion to interfere with my trading, can I?"
Alex.
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