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----- Original Message -----
From: ROBERT ROESKE <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Ross Kovacs <rossrk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 19, 1999 10:20 AM
Subject: Re: McClellan Oscillator
> I would agree with you. Even though my posts were rather bearish
sounding,
> I only traded the long side last week and did quite well. I may be long
and
> short in the same day but not at the same time with some weighting for the
> longer view. My holding time is limited to a few hours or days since I
> trade only OEX calls and puts, no spreads. If by chance the position goes
> deep in the money and the delta goes towards one, then my holding time is
> extended but I am still ready to bail out depending the read on the mkt.
> The McClellan is really not good for top picking since it rolls over. It
is
> much better for bottom picking because of the spike like nature, by using
> trendlines on the 10% component of the oscillator and from that
perspective
> it gave or is on the verge of a buy signal.
>
> Bob
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ross Kovacs <rossrk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 19, 1999 9:37 AM
> Subject: Re: McClellan Oscillator
>
>
> > Bob,
> >
> > While I agree with your analysis, your opinion of the market, and have
> > already placed my portfolio 66% short, I have two caveats:
> >
> > 1. Sherman McClellan continually warns against using the Oscillator and
> > Summation as as a "system", he says they are just "indicators".
> > 2. The market has taught me that it doesn't give a flip about my opinion
> of
> > where it's going. The market is going to do what it wants regardless of
> my
> > opinion. Therefore I believe most traders need at least a second plan
if
> > there first does not pan out.
> >
> > FWIW: my second opinion is that the market stays flat through December.
> > Stock markets can correct two ways. By going down (lowering P/E) or
> > extended sideways movement (lowering P/E as earnings rise while price
> > remains constant). My (mental) stops are at the highs of the current
> > trading range. Prices exceeding the current range on good volume, I
will
> > take my loss. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.
> >
> >
> > Ross Kovacs
> >
> > rossrk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> > <snip>
> > Just wondering how others are interpreting the current NYA pattern and
> > McClellan Oscillator configuration. It looks to me like there is a
> > bearish triangle with a decending top and essentially flat bottom. As
> > the vertex of the price triangle is approached the McClellan Oscillator
> > is showing extreme weakness in a down channel. Some may be
> > misinterpreting the oscillator at this time as saying it is oversold
> > when in fact it can become twice as oversold if the NYA drops through
> > support in the closing weeks of the quarter. It also seems like there
> > should be massive tax loss selling this year since the advance decline
> > line has been dropping for a significantly long time.
> >
> > Bob Roeske
> >
> >
>
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