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<DIV><FONT size=2>FYI, this valuation summary came from </FONT><FONT size=2><A
href="http://homepages.together.net/~wbarnes/stockmarket.htm";>http://homepages.together.net/~wbarnes/stockmarket.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There are some interesting charts there also. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><B>ESTIMATED EARNINGS</B> <BR>The Barnes Risk Index compares
1-year trailing earnings and dividends to current interest rates. But many
analysts, including the Fed, use <B><I>estimated</I></B> 1-year forward earnings
compared to the 10-year Treasury Bond to calculate overvalue of the S&P 500.
Here are some recent values: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><PRE>Date Analyst Index Value ErnEst 10yrBd OvrVal Source
03/19/99 B Steinberg S&P500 1299 48.84 5.14% 37% Merrill Lynch
03/26/99 AJ Cohen S&P500 1283 51.61i 5.20 29 Goldman Sachs/ L.A. Times, Washington Post
05/28/99 P Canelo S&P500 1302 52.00 5.56 39 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
06/23/99 Heartland S&P500 1333 53.90 6.00 48 www.heartlandfunds.com, S&P is Overvalued
09/10/99 First Call DJIA 11028 537.92i 5.891 21 Barron's Weekly, Market Laboratory, Consensus Earnings
08/20/99 CNNfn S&P500 1337 45.04i 5.870 74? cnnfn.com, Mkts&Invstg, ErnEst, symbol=SPX.X
09/10/99 Goinvest S&P500 1352 47.20i 5.891 69? goinvest.com, Earnings, Earnings Estimates, SPX.X
09/10/99 Zacks S&P500 1352 46.19i 5.891 72? www.zacks.com, Free Company Report, symbol=SPX.X
09/10/99 Ed Yardeni S&P500 1352 56.45 5.891 41.1 EarningsEstimate = 10YB*S&P/(1+Overvalue)
i = interpolated between fiscal 1999 and 2000. Overvalue = (10YB*Index/EarningsEstimate)-1
Use 0.45 for 45%, 0.045 for 4.5%, etc.
</PRE></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Sep 18 21:59:19 1999
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From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
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Subject: S&P-Recent Evaluation With Linear Regression and Momentum Correlation
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Status:
FYI:
Though most of what I still do is mechanical I am fascinated at times
by little things.If one were to track the subject items,one would have
approximately seen:
1.Buy at 1316 on 6/15/99
2.Sell at 1390 on 7/20/99 + 66 points
3.Buy at 1347 on 8/16/99 + 43 points
4.Sell at 1336 on 8/30/99 - 11 points
5.Buy at 1330 on 9/2/99 + 6 points
6.Sell at 1334 on 9/7/99 + 4 points
7.Buy at 1351 on 9/17 99 - 17 points
Net points= + 91
Comments and observations welcome.
John
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