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Nevertheless, something must be sold/disinvested from the US to be
bought/reinvested into something elsewhere. If it is not treasuries what could
it be? When looking at moves and trends this size, there must be an underlying
force driving the market, that's what I am trying to figure out... Last year in
Asia, it turned out investors were pulling capital out of the emerging markets.
Someone is now pulling capital out of US dollar assets, into Yen assets. Who
and why may be interesting facts to know about from a long term investment
clima point of view.
Gwenn
| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
| Von: Earl Adamy [SMTP:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
| Gesendet am: Tuesday, September 14, 1999 4:25 PM
| An: 'List Serenity-Trading'; 'List RT'
| Betreff: [serenity-trading] Re: Japan and $ yen
|
| I track foreign holdings of US treasuries as reported by the Fed weekly in
| Barrons. Holdings have been very stable to slightly increasing. The last
| major decline was approximately 10% something over a year ago.
|
| Earl
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
| To: 'List Serenity-Trading' <serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx>; 'List RT'
| <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 1999 9:33 AM
| Subject: Japan and $ yen
|
|
| > With $ yen rates reaching new lows in the 10550s, some questions start
| > appearing. Those dollars being sold versus Euro have to come from
| somewhere. It
| > is hardly exports proceeds being sold, so it is quite likely to be money
| > brought back home by Japanese Insurance funds, and other institutionals to
| meet
| > rising capital needs in Japan itself.
| >
| > If that is the case, this may explain why bonds have done so poorly and
| have
| > been marred in a downtrend for months, even as market pundits declared at
| each
| > fed move: "this is the last", which btw I don't subscribe to.
| >
| > Maybe the question is not so much how much inflation there is or not in
| the
| > States, but more how many investment opportunities are there still to be
| found
| > in the US at attractive rates versus Japan for example. With all the
| > restructuring efforts still before them in Japan, some seem to be betting
| on
| > the land of the rising sun.
| >
| > Next is to consider that the Nikkei index is likely to be modified to
| reflect
| > the more modern Japan of 2000, with the inclusion of such stars as
| Softbank.
| > That would only help propel the Nikkei even faster on the upside (which I
| > suppose is the goal of the government). which would attract further
| momentum
| > followers.
| >
| > Add to this that Private equity holdings are at historical lows as well as
| > western lows, versus the US extremes, it looks increasingly like the
| capital
| > flows of the eighties from yen into dollar and US assets are subsiding in
| favor
| > of Japan. That may mean also the good days of the running bull market in
| the US
| > may increasingly become a thing of the past.
| >
| > Just an opinion, but speaking of going with the flow, that might be an
| > interesting one to watch.
| >
| > Gwenn
|
|
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