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With $ yen rates reaching new lows in the 10550s, some questions start
appearing. Those dollars being sold versus Euro have to come from somewhere. It
is hardly exports proceeds being sold, so it is quite likely to be money
brought back home by Japanese Insurance funds, and other institutionals to meet
rising capital needs in Japan itself.
If that is the case, this may explain why bonds have done so poorly and have
been marred in a downtrend for months, even as market pundits declared at each
fed move: "this is the last", which btw I don't subscribe to.
Maybe the question is not so much how much inflation there is or not in the
States, but more how many investment opportunities are there still to be found
in the US at attractive rates versus Japan for example. With all the
restructuring efforts still before them in Japan, some seem to be betting on
the land of the rising sun.
Next is to consider that the Nikkei index is likely to be modified to reflect
the more modern Japan of 2000, with the inclusion of such stars as Softbank.
That would only help propel the Nikkei even faster on the upside (which I
suppose is the goal of the government). which would attract further momentum
followers.
Add to this that Private equity holdings are at historical lows as well as
western lows, versus the US extremes, it looks increasingly like the capital
flows of the eighties from yen into dollar and US assets are subsiding in favor
of Japan. That may mean also the good days of the running bull market in the US
may increasingly become a thing of the past.
Just an opinion, but speaking of going with the flow, that might be an
interesting one to watch.
GwennFrom ???@??? Tue Sep 14 11:47:48 1999
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Date: Tue, 14 Sep 1999 09:04:45 -0700
To: "Merkley, Steve" <SMerkley@xxxxxxx>,
"'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx'" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Alexander Levitin <alevitin@xxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: investing in stocks and or futures
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Dear Steve:
This is the best advise I could give you:
1. Buy the 6 month TB for the whole "fair amount of money". You will get
the interest as a rebate check. Select automatic reinvestment of your TB.
It will provide you with check every 6 months.
2. Learn how to invest, trade or whatever you what to call it. Use only
rebate money to do it. Then if you loose entire amount you will have
another check (and another chance) to trade every 6 month.
3. Be my guest, make 26% return, make 100% return or whatever you can
muster on your interest income. If you will make 100% return you do not
need wait long until your interest capital exceed you original principal
amount.
4. Do not look for someone who know how to make 26% return per year to
invest your $100,000. (Of cause, there are plenty of crooks happy to
accommodate you). One who could double the money every 3 years do not need
YOUR $100,000 dollars. He has so much HIS (HER) money, that he gives a tip
of $250K to valet parking attendant.
5. Please, remember the very old proverb (present company excluded) "the
fool and his money ..."
6. I am happy for you and wish you the best.
Yours,
Old Alex.
At 07:58 AM 9/14/99 -0700, Merkley, Steve wrote:
>see below
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Merkley, Steve
>> Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 1999 8:49 AM
>> To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
>> Subject: investing in stocks and or futures
>>
>> hi realtraders,
>>
>> i will be receiving a fair amount of money soon and wanted to know if it
>> is reasonable to think that i can double my money every 3 years? the
>> amount of money i will be starting with is $100,000. i am looking to
>> either do this myself or have someone do it for me or any combination of
>> investing where i can get at least a 26% return on my money every year.
>> if i can do that, i can double my money every 3 years. are there
>> investors out there that anyone knows of that can consistently make at
>> least 26% on their money that would be interested in helping me to do that
>> also. you can either reply in private or give this information to the
>> group.
>>
>> thanks,
>>
>> steve merkley
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