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Bonds heading lower.
Reasons:
1) 70 billion more in corporate supply coming in the next few months.
2) US trade deficit will continue to worsen. Already at absurd levels.
3) US Dollar expected to weaken further.
4) US stock market at extremes never seen, foreigners see that risk/reward
is better in other markets.
5) Bond have recently seen false breakout, and Friday's upday failed to
close above key 114 level.
Sell them.
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At 12:53 AM 9/13/99 +0200, Stig O wrote:
>We have a very interesting situation in bonds it seems to me.
>
>Emediately it looks like we are at solid support.
>
>- we are right at a 36 month cycle low (36*4=144)
>- which coincide with 15year trendline touched for the 3rd time
>- and at 75% retracement level from 97 low-99high
>- and 38,2 % retracement level of 87 low -99 high
>- the low was at the last solar eclipse
>
>See gif "Bondwedge"
>
>However, on Aug 25 we had an upside failure break out from the main
resistance line from the 10/5 1998 high.
>If this really is a failure, we should presume a powerful breakdown from
the 112.19 low (dec contract).
>
>Further suporting this view are the falling bottoms in On balance volume
while prices remained flat at this bottom area
>
>The is a hidden divergence in the CCI indicating falling prices
>
>We also have a previous support area, indicated by the green bars on the
RH margin, which now has turned into resistance.
>
>On the galactic trader list we could also see a planetary resistance area
114½-115 (no picture - you have to believe it...)
>
>Adv GET's elliotwave count indicates though that we have completed a 5
wave fall.......
>
>see gif GET
>
>Looking at TBills we don't see the "false" (????) upside break out, but a
solid resitance on 2 fronts.
>-The falling resistance line
>- A broken supportline that now has turned into resistance
>-and look at all the time relationships to erlier tops/bottoms
>
>See gif "bills" in next post
>
>Looking at the CRB that should influence Bonds
>
>-we just had an UPSIDE breakout of a RISING wedge which is seriously
bullish for CRB
>-we also broke the 78.6% retracement from the most recent top/bottom
>-and we also broke out of an inverted H&S pattern with 2 heads with a min
potential of a 7%rise
>
>A follow trhough on this chart could perhaps influence a downside break in
bonds at least it's not supportive.
>
>See CRB gif in next post
>
>Looking back on the first gif we see the gigantic rising wedge wich is
REALLY serious.
>A downside break would question the whole uptrend and indicate a downside
potential a will not mention on this list to avoid any ridicule it would
cause....
>
>My suggestion would be that anybody betting on an upside movement should
have a stop and reverse order below this bottom since
>
>1 failures are often followed by swift movement in the oposite direction
>2 downside breaks of rising wedges are often volatile affaires
>3 as well as breaks of fib supportlevels
>
>
>rgrds
>stig
>
>
>
>Attachment Converted: "d:\eudora\attach\Bondwedge.gif"
>
>Attachment Converted: "d:\eudora\attach\GET.gif"
>
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