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I think one must be both flexible and patient here. While the longer trend
is up, I don't think we put in a good bottom on the last decline nor have we
retested it, so I've been watching for a good short trade setup; however I
haven't seen anything where I like the risk reward. Based on what I've seen,
I would not be surprised to see a short pullback followed by another leg up
before we get a real decline.
Worthy of notice is the bonds break above a very tight series of trendlines
drawn across pivot highs since the October high. The collection of lines
turned rallies away 6 times before breaking and should provide some
significant support to bond prices.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
To: realtraders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, August 27, 1999 7:28 AM
Subject: DOW
> The following was posted on Aug 14th and the current chart is attached.
> Ira.
>
> There have been numerous prognostications as to where the Dow is
> going. The attached chart indicates a trading channnel. The Dow will
> not make a mojor move to the down side until that trend line is broken.
> If there is a 160 point drop in the dow there is an 80% probability of
> the dow dropping another 140 points. That would still leave it above
> the trend line. The first target to the upside has been met at 10950 and
>
> there is a 70% probability that it will reach 11,130. Resistance should
>
> occur between 11100 and 11150. and a retracement of this up move could
> take place. Now that I am hanging out all the way, let us see what
> happens. You will notice that I am looking in both directions for a
> trade. Unidirectional thought can cost a lot of money. Have a good
> week end. Ira
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