|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
A nice post.
However, one more thing. The market is rather like a great chess game with
moves and counter-moves: how many of the big movers know (and exploit) all
of the indicators and techniques you mentioned?. When someone is selling but
not many are buying, and when many are buying, but there is little movement?
Why? Why not?
Are not these also questions that should reflect the moves we make on the
black squares of the marketplace.
Gram.
-----Messaggio originale-----
Da: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
A: kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Data: 18 August 1999 20:47
Oggetto: "Wholly Grill", not Holy Grail
>Lynn,
>
>To clarify the "averaging" comment: my approach (trading rules) allows the
>system to generate one signal a week. Sometimes, in the course of events,
>I will add to a position that is already profitable. Normally, if I
>receive another signal, I am usually scaling into another position because
>the market has moved against me.
>
>Nothing wrong with Minor and DiNapoli. I use fib projections based on the
>calculations of the previous week. Friday after the close, I establish a
>"range" for following week (based on the previous 5 days of trading). If
>the range
> is penetrated by the price and I have a confirming signal in my momentum
>indicator,
>I either "add" to my position or "reverse".
>
>I've personally studied with some of the so-called "masters" and have a
>fairly good
>working knowledge of technical concepts. I teach classes at two
>universities and lecture on wheat, cattle, currencies and indices from a
>technical viewpoint. No matter how accomplished one becomes at technical
>analysis (and I'm just another student, trying to learn everyday), somehow
>one must filter all their knowledge and make a decision to "pull the
>trigger".
>
>It has been my experience that as learned more about fibonacci, momentum
>oscillators, Edwards and Magee (read it 127 times), fractals, etc., etc.,
>..
>that the more I learned, the more I started to understand that each of
>these "looks" at the market have their own shining moment. The problem is
>getting some kind of "coincidence of conjunction". When the serendipity of
>everything turning at once finally happens, it can be powerful...but, how
>often does that set up?
>
>I monitor 9 separate momentum oscillators (some are off the shelf, others
>are bastardized concoctions of my own making). When I "template" these
>together and start to watch their movement I start to ask myself some
>interesting questions. "Do I initiate a position when 5 out of 9 of these
>indicators turn"? "Should I pull the trigger after 7 turn"? "Should I
>wait for all 9 to turn". Herein lies the entire dilemma any technical
>trader faces:
>
>"When do I have enough objective evidence to make a subjective decision"?
>
>Also, after making that subjective decision you become a slave to the trade
>you initiate. Once in, one must constantly analyze to make a subjective
>decision to get out (or place an subjective, arbitrary stop at a point
>where the market
>"shouldn't go"). This process then plays a major role in "tweaking" your
>brain (ego, subconscious, dark corners, etc.). After placing 10,000+
>trades
>over my career, I know the toll that this can take on the old "grey
>matter".
>
>Some of the best technicians I know can't trade their way out of a paper
>bag. Usually, they are using the bag to lose their lunch or someone is
>handing them their lunch in the bag. I've been very right a lot of times
>and waited for one more confirming indicator ... only to end up in a losing
>position because my trigger finger was "gun shy". I've made every mistake
>in the book.
>
>Now, I can rationalize everything that happens (if something doesn't work
>out, it's the "system's" fault). I still do my obligatory daily technical
>analysis and I can bullshit that view with the best of them. But, when
>push comes to shove, I initiate all my positions from a mechanical system.
>Sure, if I'm long the S&P and it goes to zero and I keep adding long
>positions, I'm screwed. I do trade the meats, the softs, the grains and
>diversify my portfolios so there is some protection against blow outs in
>any one of my eight markets. There are no guarantees in any approach. If
>I was a greedy bastard, I'd subject my clients to close stops and convince
>them that they needed them for "their protection" (and my pocketbook).
>
>In the past, I have shared every detail (formulae, rules, etc.) and results
>in actual markets (i.e., CocoLoco). I enjoy this forum (kinda) but
>contribute more to the MetaStock forum (less idiots, kinder folks). I sure
>hope Arch Crawford is right and the market go straight down (today or
>tomorrow). If I reverse my position next week, I sure hope he's wrong
>(until I'm short again).
>Actually, I don't give a rip about Arch...(I swing trade..give me Clyde Lee
>or Linda Bradford Rascke).
>
>This is a very difficult arena to play in (especially the "zero sum" minus
>"some more" in futures). There are some great contributors to this forum
>(S. Poser, Ira, C. Lee, Earl, Norman, T. Alexander, just to name a few).
>Unfortunately, a number of good traders have jumped ship and are no longer
>around. Quality posts are always appreciated. Where is sheriff John
>Boggio?
>
>Steve Karnish
>Cedar Creek Trading
>
>----------
>> From: MRLYNNG@xxxxxxx
>> To: kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: S&P 500
>> Date: Wednesday, August 18, 1999 8:27 AM
>>
>> In a message dated 08/17/1999 9:14:17 PM Pacific Daylight Time,
>> kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>>
>> << I use a momentum oscillator and some fibonacci derived high and low
>> projections to trigger my trades. I'm always in the market long or
>short.
>> I average losers up or down. And I don't use any stops. >>
>> ***************************************
>> Steve:
>> Seems like you got the attention of several traders. To clarify, could
>you
>> give your definition of averaging losers up or down. As for the fib
>> projections, what time frame are you using, daily, weekly, 60 min etc.
>and is
>> this method basded on work used by Miner, DiNapoli or others? Thanks.
>> Lynn
>
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
|