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My assumptions:
1 - One concern big investors are having is how much more growth can be hoped
for in the US, and at the current valuations how do prospects compare long term
to other places like Europe and Japan for instance, the only two other major
investment grade equity markets capable of absorbing the massive US funds.
2 - Greenspan is not worried about inflation, but about calling back home the
massive liquidities injected into the markets during end of 1998, without
disrupting these. If they stay outside eventually they will contribute to
another specualtive asset bubble like the Asian one, whose consequences they
were fighting precisely.
My view is that markets move because of capital flows, which in turn are
motivated by expectations of future developments, hence induce a competition
between investment opportunities. Clearly the US markets are where the Japanese
markets were in the 80s, and Japan where the US were in the 70s. Now trends may
continue for a while, but at some point there will be a higher expected profit
potential perceived in Japan or Europe as in the US. It is already apparent
there is so much more to improve in Japan and Europe than there is in the US,
that some already seem to be shifting some ressources in anticipation... Now
that may be a bit premature or it may be not, but long term it is inevitable.
Such is the path of least resistance...
Gwenn
| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
| Von: GREHERT@xxxxxxx [SMTP:GREHERT@xxxxxxx]
| Gesendet am: Wednesday, August 18, 1999 12:02 PM
| An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
| Betreff: Why is everyone so bearish?
|
| I can't understand why everybody is so bearish. The two main reasons cited
| by most experts are rising interest rates and the Y2K uncertainties (and lets
|
| not forget inflation). Well as I see it, interest rates have just dropped
| more than 25 basis points; Y2K will probably be a big thud, and Greenspan
| will keep inflation in check with pre-announced rate hikes.
|
| Technically, we're not due for a 20% S&P correction. Remember we get a bear
| market every 4 years. That would be 1990, 1994(stealth-bear), and 1998.
| Next one's due in 2002. Two 20% corrections 12 months apart would be
| unprecedented.
|
| I would guess that we have another 1994 zig-zaggy type summer with probably a
|
| test of the lows and as soon as Y2K passes, an explosion torr the upside.
| Your thoughts?
|
| Jerry RehertFrom ???@??? Wed Aug 18 13:12:08 1999
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Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 02:36:28 +0800
To: "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Andrew <warlord@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: S&P 500
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Status:
Averaging is pretty standard in the pit.
Regardless of the things you read in the books or interviews.
If you think going into the pit means you can execute 1 position
at 1 price level and then watch the money come in, well, that
not how its done in the pits. (By the profitable ones at least).
The better pit trader has a range of scaling/averaging in prices.
I believe what Steve is talking about refers to this "strategy".
It ain't a loser. You are just not sure whether this level will
hold or the other. Given that he has losers, he does know
when to call it quits.
He wouldn't need broker held stops if he has mental stops and
watches the screen. Oscillators can do wonders.
He didn't say anything terribly "wrong". Appears to be a difference
in wording.
At 04:51 AM 8/18/99 -0400, Tom Alexander wrote:
>Glad you're having a good year. Trading the S&P's by simply averaging
>losers is a great way to crash and burn. It's simply a matter of time. This
>year has been fairly choppy so one could have been bailed out along the
>way. 1995 must have been fun. I hope anyone that thinks it's this simple
>does a little homework with a spreadsheet.
>
>Regards,
>
>Tom Alexander
>
>----------
>> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: List <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Subject: S&P 500
>> Date: Tuesday, August 17, 1999 11:19 PM
>>
>> List,
>>
>> Don't have a lot of time to debate style and whether Arch Crawford is
>right
>> or wrong. I do know that some of the largest contributors to the forum,
>in
>> shear verbiage, don't even trade the markets they comment on. Wow!
>>
>> Anyway, as a CTA, I've closed out 14 S&P positions (a couple zillion
>> contracts) since the beginning of the year, extracting over 525 points
>(13
>> winners, 1 loser). Tomorrow on the opening, I'm going short, closing out
>> the three contracts I've been long. This will push the track record to
>> 15-2.
>>
>> I use a momentum oscillator and some fibonacci derived high and low
>> projections to trigger my trades. I'm always in the market long or
>short.
>> I average losers up or down. And I don't use any stops.
>>
>> So some of you sniveling non-traders (you know who you are) can chew on
>> this and work yourself into a snit about how I break all the rules. I
>been
>> breaking them since 1975 and it's been real rewarding.
>>
>> I not suggesting that anyone follow in my footsteps. There are a lot of
>> ways to make a living in these markets. I guess I'm just a little tired
>of
>> reading the "mental traders" pontificate about markets that they wouldn't
>> recognize if they stumbled in the pit and criticizing approaches that
>they
>> don't understand. The "realtraders" on this forum seem to be the
>> individuals that are tolerant of the wide variety of styles that
>appreciate
>> equity.
>>
>> Steve Karnish
>> Cedar Creek Trading
>
|