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Just to follow-up and close this thought out, SB9V gapped down this morning
breaking to downside of previous 2 inside days. While the 3rd inside day
remains intact at this writing, the short term bullish consolidation pattern
has been clearly violated and I'm not certain that I want to be long if we
get a nominal new high. My SAR has been replaced with a tightened trailing
stop. Should I become convinced that this morning's move cleared the sell
stops in preparation for a move up (a reversal day with lower open and close
above yesterday's close), I may close out the short position and go long.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 1999 6:43 AM
Subject: Re: GEN: Market Direction
> I don't trade off indicators and systems, so there is no pat answer. I do
> use Robert Miner's simplified approach to EW and a change in counts is one
> trigger where a bearish count clearly evolves to bullish or vice versa.
> Another is simply watching the price action evolve. An example: I've been
> short SB9V (Oct Sugar) for a couple of weeks now based on idea that a
final
> C wave decline is needed to complete the correction and have trailed a
> simple stop. However, recent price action (see series of smaller range
> inside days) is suggesting that something else may be in the wind. I am
now
> trailing a stop and reverse which will put me net long if sugar breaks out
> to upside.
>
> To summarize: until recently I had no opinion regarding a change in
> trend/direction if stopped out so I used a simple stop, now I have an
> opinion regarding direction so am trailing a SAR which allows the market
to
> put me in synch if it wants to up. Hope this helps.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Rory Lewellen <rl2946@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 1999 7:11 PM
> Subject: Re: GEN: Market Direction
>
>
> > Earl Adamy,
> >
> > Good brief explaination of how one can incorporate analytically
> > derived
> > judgements of the position of markets with possible trades.
> >
> > Question: What parameters have you found helpful in determining
> > whether
> > to pre-order a reversal if stopped out, as opposed to simply taking
> > the
> > loss and moving on to the next trade?
>
>
>
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