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I think one should use whatever works. I also trade a wide variety of
futures markets, however I generally look to trade trends and trend
reversals so I must have an opinion regarding the future direction of the
market. I also have an opinion of exactly what market action will prove my
opinion to be wrong. This in no way means that the market must conform to my
opinion, it simply means that if the market confirms my opinion, I trade it
and if not, I stand aside until the market direction becomes clear. If I am
in a trade and the market takes the requisite action to prove my opinion
wrong, I step out or reverse direction. I feel that one of the advantages I
have as a position trader is to pick and choose the time and place in which
I engage in battle.
For example, I hold the opinion that the market will move down further
before it moves up and I believe we are closing in on the point at which the
rally will fail. This morning's rally (barely) failed to meet my minimum
price objective for short entry so I stood aside. This afternoon's rally has
met my minimum objective and I am trailing a small short entry in the
market. Should price rally into the 1350-1352 area, I will trail a larger
short entry or enter short on reversal bars. Should price rally beyond
corrective levels, I will cancel my short orders and reevaluate.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <bheisler@xxxxxxx>
To: Johnny Storm <iceman_nrg@xxxxxxxxx>
Cc: Johnny Storm <iceman_nrg@xxxxxxxxx>; Real Traders
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 1999 11:35 AM
Subject: Re: GEN: Market Direction
> I guess the question I have is "Why have an opinion at
> all?"
>
> IMHO going into any trading day with a directional bias
> is the wrong approach. Each night I prepare a game plan
> for the following day for each market I trade. This
> plans includes S/R points and is designed to trade in
> EITHER direction depending upon the price action.
>
> Having an opinion I have found will get you into nothing
> but trouble. Make a plan, trade the plan, and focus on
> the price specifics. Throw out predictions, forecasts,
> and opinions.
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