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Interesting analagy, but not accurate. Joe Granville did not actually reverse
his bearish position until many months after the bull market had already
started. His decline as a well followed analyst dates from that mis-call.
The call is best credited at the time to the leading tech analyst at E.F.
Hutton, whose name I've now forgotten, who credited the very extreme TRIN
indicator and divergence of downside momentum as the source of his opinion at
the time. E.F Hutton sent wires out to all their institutional clients and
their retail brokers the day before the reversal.
Mark Scheier
bo turger wrote:
> Hey RT's,
> Remember Joe Granville and the beginning of this bull market in 1982?
> He was THE stock market guru at that time. It was the reversal of his
> market call to sell that is credited (at least by some) as triggering this
> unprecedented bull move we are in.
> So...why was Arch Crawford on CNBC anyway?
> Good trading,
> Bo.
>
> >From: "RAY RAFFURTY" <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: "RAY RAFFURTY" <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>
> >To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >CC: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Arch Crawford's 1000pt prediction
> >Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 16:17:12 -0400
> >
> >Hi RT's,
> >
> >This morning on CNBC, Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes 1000) point drop
> >in the market some time in the next two weeks. I don't follow astrology,
> >but do respect Mr. Crawford (and Norman). If a 1000 Dow points is about
> >equal to about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about 675, 100 points would
> >take it to 575. I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it is at 2.5. This
> >surprised the hell out of me since I expected it to be about 1/2. The Aug
> >580 Put is at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and might expire before the
> >predicted move.
> >
> >Looks like someone is hedging or speculating on his prediction.
> >
> > Good luck and good
> >trading,
> >
> > Ray
> >Raffurty
>
> _______________________________________________________________
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