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Ray,
I'm sure that we agree for the most part but for the new among us I will
expand a little.
I don't know if you recall the big discussion about trading and gambling
that we had once on Real Traders but one school of thought was that anything
that involves risk is gambling, the other school says that if you are
properly educated, financed, and able it is an investment rather then
gambling.
I could say that I will let you use stops, data, etc. if you will pay me a
brokerage fee, a monthly fee for data and other exchange fees and we could
go on stretching out the analogy from there but what I was trying to do is
formulate a picture that people could visualize to understand their odds of
success if they are an unprepared, novice trader.
On the surface it seems as if trading is very easy a 50/50 deal, if you buy
or sell at any moment there are only 2 possibilities it goes for you or
against you. Any one that trades soon finds out that, that is the least of
their problems. When and where do you stop your losses, where do you take
profits, how do you control your emotions of fear and greed and on and on.
Using the cups again you can remove one cup if you have access to good data.
Remove another cup if you find a really good and fairly priced broker(s).
Remove another cup if you read and study and understand all the standard
techniques of analysis and are well financed. Another cup if you learn about
patterns, market psychology, trader psychology, and write some of your own
analysis so that you can test your ideas and paper trade. Another if you get
tutoring from a good teacher and learn from your mistakes. Each time it gets
harder to remove another cup. When you get down to about 3 cups you can
begin trading with some degree of hope. Most don't have the time, money and
tenacity to get to that point.
Funny, there was a short thread on another list once about who you would
rather have trade for you Spock or Kirk. Ideally, you need both, the careful
analyst and the dynamic implementor.
Brent
>Hi Brent,
>
>I totally agree that one must both understand the risks and have through
>training before trading, however the analogy to gambling does not hold
water
>for two reasons. First, if my methods give me an edge, say 60% it is like
>peeking under 6 of the cups. Secondly, and more importantly, I can cancel
>the trade at any time, limiting my loses. Like looking under one cup, and
>finding nothing, canceling the bet and getting $90 back. Would you want to
>play against me under those terms?
>
>Vulcans make excellent traders, they can calculate the odds and never let
>emotions get in the way.
>
> Live long and prosper,
>
> Ray (Spock)
>Raffurty
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: BrentinUtahsDixie <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RAY RAFFURTY <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Tuesday, August 10, 1999 1:43 AM
>Subject: Re: RT_GEN: Day Trading News
>
>
>> Right, I certainly do not favor greater Governmental control. As usual>
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