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<DIV>Hi Doug,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>This is a direct quote copied from the report:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><EM>"Exhibit G shows that <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000><U>ALL
</U></FONT></STRONG>of the trades held 3 days or less were
profitable..."</EM></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>repeat</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><EM>"Exhibit G shows that <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000><U>ALL
</U></FONT></STRONG>of the trades held 3 days or less were
profitable..."</EM></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT color=#000000>"...</FONT><U><STRONG>ALL
</STRONG></U></FONT>of the trades..." </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>All of the losses occurred on trades held for more than three days.
My point is this "report" (read witch hunt) has deliberately distorted the facts
to create an indictment of day trading! There are valuable lessons to be
learned from the portion of the report <FONT face="Arial Black"><FONT
face=Arial>titled:</FONT></FONT>
<P align=left> "Day Trading, <FONT face=Arial>An Analysis of Public Day
Trading at a Retail Day Trading Firm"</FONT></P>
<P align=left>The rest of the conclusions drawn by the government regulators are
pure garbage.</P>
<P align=left>
Good luck and good trading,</P></DIV>
<DIV>
Ray Raffurty</DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----
<DIV>From: Doug Penny <<A
href="mailto:pennyd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>pennyd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>To: RAY RAFFURTY <<A
href="mailto:rrraff@xxxxxxxx";>rrraff@xxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>Cc: BrentinUtahsDixie <<A
href="mailto:brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>>; <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>>; <<A
href="mailto:Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Tuesday, August 10, 1999 10:24 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: Re: RT_GEN: Day Trading News</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>> I think the conclusions were fairly valid. Have you ever run
a risk of ruin over<BR>> your own system. Maybe some would have been
profitable if less than 10% of<BR>> capital was risked on each trade but
obviously they had no idea as to the real<BR>> risk<BR>> <BR>>
Doug<BR>> <BR>> RAY RAFFURTY wrote:<BR>> <BR>> > Hi
Brent,<BR>> ><BR>> > They started with 30 accounts, but thru out 4
because they where traded by<BR>> > the same person, leaving 26. If
you read further, 9 accounts had less than<BR>> > 30 trades and where
statistically insignificant. They where thrown out,<BR>> > leaving
17 accounts.<BR>> ><BR>> > Five of the six winning accounts where
thrown out because they took high<BR>> > risks, and according to them,
will become losers sooner or later. Well,<BR>> > maybe, but they can not
prove it.<BR>> ><BR>> > Seems to me the numbers where both
manipulated and to small a sample.<BR>> ><BR>>
>
Good luck and good trading,<BR>> ><BR>>
>
Ray Raffurty<BR>> ><BR>> > ----- Original Message -----<BR>> >
From: BrentinUtahsDixie <<A
href="mailto:brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>> > To:
RAY RAFFURTY <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>;
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>
> Cc: <<A
href="mailto:Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>
> Sent: Monday, August 09, 1999 8:33 PM<BR>> > Subject: Re: RT_GEN: Day
Trading News<BR>> ><BR>> > > >As I understand this report, it
used a very small sampling of day traders<BR>> > > >from one office
in Mass. It samples only 17 individuals of which 6 where<BR>> > >
>making money.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > It's not quite the way Ray
heard it, although the sample was small. Pasted<BR>> > > below is the
info from the report.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > Brent<BR>> >
><BR>> > ><BR>> > > Analysis of Customers' Day Trading
Accounts<BR>> > ><BR>> > > Thirty (30) short-term trading
accounts were randomly selected for<BR>> > analysis<BR>> > > from
accounts that had been maintained at the Watertown, Massachusetts<BR>> >
> office of All-Tech in 1997 and 1998. Copies of customer account
statements<BR>> > > had been obtained in connection with Massachusetts'
proceeding against<BR>> > > All-Tech.<BR>> > ><BR>> >
> The Project Group retained Erik Sikowitz of STZ Analytical Services in
New<BR>> > > York, New York to tabulate account statement data and
quantify trading<BR>> > > activity. Mr. Sikowitz made calculations of
profits and losses;<BR>> > commissions;<BR>> > > turnover; and
cost-to-equity ratios.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > The Project Group
retained Ronald L. Johnson, a Securities and Futures<BR>> > >
Consultant, of Palm Harbor, Florida to analyze and evaluate the trading<BR>>
> > performance of the accounts. Mr. Johnson's findings and conclusions
are as<BR>> > > follows:<BR>> > ><BR>> > > The
average account was open four months, had an average annual turnover<BR>>
> of<BR>> > > 278, and a cost/equity ratio of 56%. Six of the
accounts were traded by<BR>> > two<BR>> > > individuals so four
accounts were removed to avoid skewing the performance<BR>> > >
analyses.<BR>> > > All trading in the accounts was analyzed and
evaluated (4,093 trades in 26<BR>> > > accounts). Seventy percent of
the accounts lost money and were traded in a<BR>> > > manner that
realized a 100% Risk of Ruin (loss of all funds).<BR>> > > Only three
accounts of the twenty-six evaluated (11.5% of the sample),<BR>> > >
evidenced the ability to conduct profitable short-term trading.<BR>> >
> The statistically significant day trading (2,754 trades in 17
accounts)<BR>> > was<BR>> > > evaluated. Sixty-five percent of
the accounts lost money and were traded<BR>> > in<BR>> > > a
manner that realized a 100% Risk of Ruin (loss of all funds)<BR>> > >
There was only one successful day trading account in the 17 accounts<BR>>
> > analyzed, and this account did not have trading returns commensurate
with<BR>> > > the risks to which the account was exposed.<BR>> >
> The most successful account in the study had limited short-term
trading<BR>> > and<BR>> > > no day trading.<BR>> >
><BR>> > ><BR>> > ><BR>> > ><BR>> <BR>>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Aug 10 09:34:44 1999
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Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:13:18 -0500
From: Joe Frabosilio <joe6964@xxxxxxxx>
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Status:
Sorry I didn't post any charts, it would be a little too big. In
looking at the SPX, the monthly, weekly, and daily charts say basically
the same thing. My take is if the SPX were to break below 1275 this may
start a new trend (down). The next support would be ~1225.
Below that, all I can do is plot out Time and Price lines. Does anyone
have a different way to see if the trend is about to change?
TradeWell,
Joe Frabosilio
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