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Gary & RT's
This response is right on track. What trader would not want to enter as
close to a turning point as possible. He has not only maximized his
potential profit from the impending move, he has also minimized his loss by
being able to set his stop just below the pivot point - that point which
proves the previous trend has not yet reversed.
The critical element is having some reliable and consistent method for
anticipating the turning points so you can enter as favorably as possible.
In previous posts on the astrology thread, I have tried to stimulate the
posting of data to verify reliability and consistency of the astro methods
being touted. So far none have come forward.
What information should a poster present on the referenced technique? I
suggest, as a minimum he should present statistical data from a large sample
of applications - say 100 or more occurances of the phenomonon. He should
post the percentage of moves in the direction of the signal, the price
distribution of both winning and losing trades. This , of course, requires a
definition of what is considered a losing trade(time frame ). With this
information and a complete description of the mechanics of the technique, an
independent trader can evaluate and reach his own decision on the viability
of the method as it fits his trading persona.Without the presentation of
this data, the technique can be considered coincidental and of little value
to this or any other list.
To those on this list who have received my forecasts and research reports,
you know that I attempt to convey this information.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
To: <Jdonato98@xxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 27, 1999 2:00 PM
Subject: Re: Coincidence or not, I prefer not to use it.
> > It,s not what you pay for something, It,s what you sell it for.
> > We don,t always make a profit.
> > If you bought a dozen buggy whips looking to profit by re-selling
> > them but there is not a market for buggy whips, you loose money.
>
> I'd say that was a bad "entry," buying into a falling market. You
> never should have bought the buggy whips in the first place. Given
> the bad entry, a good exit is not possible.
>
> I think it's a bit silly to argue over whether entries or exits are
> most important. Obviously BOTH are important, since it's the
> combination of entry and exit that determines profit. Lousy entries
> will spoil perfect exits, and vice versa.
>
> Personally, though, I prefer to focus on entries. Entering at the
> beginning of a move gives you much more flexibility -- you can shoot
> for larger profit targets, move your stop to breakeven more often and
> let things run, etc. More importantly, though, it can greatly reduce
> your risk. If you enter right after a major swing bottom/top, you
> can set a fairly safe and reasonably small stop beyond the swing.
>
> If you enter farther along in the move, a market-driven stop might be
> too far from your entry. A perfect exit won't help you much if your
> entry requires such large stops that you can't take the trade, or if
> you go bust if you take it.
>
> The trick, of course, is figuring out when that new move has
> started...
>
> Gary
>
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