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BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> This is likely to cause one of those Sultan of Brunei type of reactions and
> that is not my intention, but if this kind of accuracy were possible on a
> consistent basis by now all astute Astrologists should be very wealthy. More
> so than Warren Buffet (I have no idea how Buffet trades and that is beside
> the point.) and others yet it is not at all clear that, that is the case. I
> don't care if anyone wants to follow Astrology that is up to them. I prefer
> not to use it. I don't believe that success depends on it. So I say, to each
> his own.
>
> Brent,
Your assumptions are faulty. Just because someone is a good market analyst
and may have a high probability forecast for what the market is going to do does
not mean that they can make any money trading. There have been many discussions
via this list and other mediums that prove for most people that even when given
prescience "a funny thing happened when I went to call my broker". In other
words, analyziing/forecasting is one skill and trading is a totally separate
skill. Trading requires the ability to execute instructions or make quick
decisions without any hesitation. Analyzing is much more reflective and I have
found that the two should not be attempted at the same time. This comes down to
two very different skills using two different parts of a brain which are
emphasized by two different personality types.
Hypothetically, lets say two people arrive at a railroad crossing,
notice that a nearby bridge is out, and realize that the train is due in 30
minutes. Both people know that something must be done or there will be a
terrible train wreck. One person will analyze the situation and all the possible
things he could do for the next 28 minutes and then realize that there is not
enough time to do anything. The other person will quickly organize a plan of
actions and go to work. It may not be the best plan of action. After all, he
didn't spend 28 minutes thinking of all the possibilities. But, because of his
quick action the train wreck may be avoided. Now who would you want to write a
report on the train wreck? The analytical guy would be the best for this because
he would have thought of all the angles. But, who would you want around if you
were on that train? The quick thinking executive type, of course.
Two different personality types, no one better than the other overall. But they
do perform different functions and under specific circumstances one will perform
better than the other.
This doesn't mean that people are exclusively one type or the other. Most
people are a mix of the two with differing emphasis on one or the other skill.
A few rare individuals are gifted with both skills equally strong, but this is a
rare exception. Any trader of considerable experience will have many stories of
how they were sure they knew what the market was going to do, it did what they
thought, but they traded badly and lost money anyway. So, no it is not
guaranteed that just because your crystal ball,
ephemeris, or Holly Grail trading system tells you what the market is going to
do, that you you will be able to trade profitably.
Unhesitatingly,
Norman
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Real Traders 99 <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, July 26, 1999 10:41 PM
> Subject: Coincidence or Day Trader's Dream?
>
> >Dear RT,
> > Those of you who took my suggestion to become more aware of
> >planetary events
> >by at least obtaining an ephemeris or aspectarian know that on Monday,
> >July 26, at 11:48 AM, EDT, Geocentrically, Mercury was exactly conjunct
> >the Sun. You may have also noticed that
> >September S&Ps made their high of the day at 11:56 AM, EDT. Six
> >minutes! Coincidence? I can not change these times. They are
> >pre-destined and published years in advance. This was the only aspect of
> >this type for the day, all the rest being minor Moon aspects, during
> >Monday. So, it was not a matter of subjective choice, i.e. picking one
> >of several aspects that happened to match the time of the high.
> > Now here is the amusing part. Since my little demonstration, about
> >two weeks ago, I have had a handful of people contact me out of the
> >supposed 1,000 on this list. .Amazingly, I continue to see posts in
> >search of the Holly Grail type trading systems. What more can these
> >people want than to know the time within a few minutes when the market
> >is going to turn and know it in advance? What other system allows you
> >to plan your vacations and intra-day breaks in advance? What other
> >system consistently tells you within a few minutes when a turn in the
> >market is likely? Yet, the search for the Holly Grail continues. One
> >could get the feeling these people wouldn't know the Holly Grail if they
> >tripped over it. Human nature is truly amazing.
> >
> >Perplexedly,
> >
> >Norman
> >
> >
> >
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