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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hello, after the great insights on sugar, I thought I
would toss wheat into the ring. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Andrew S</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Jul 20 23:19:09 1999
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Date: Tue, 20 Jul 1999 21:57:56 -0700
To: "rlopes" <rlopes@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Ira" <ist@xxxxxx>
From: Alexander Levitin <alevitin@xxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Gold is the garbage, gold stocks are not worth the paper
...
Cc: "gary bodnar" <gbodnar@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>, "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Larry Muir" <trdoptions@xxxxxxxxxxx>, <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Dear Randy:
You did not rambled, you just expressed your opinion I am completely agree
with.
Just because we have some necessary ingredients for the major bottom in
gold: wide spread pessimism, major sales from the government with excellent
track records for piking bottoms, enough time passed from the previous top,
gold prices are at historical lows, it is not mean that bear market has
ended, that the bottom is in hand and we need to became raging golden
bulls. The bear market could continue for several more years, as the
longest bear market in gold stocks (in this century) was 11 years. So it is
up to the price of gold to prove that the bear is ended and bull began.
Personally, using my technical tools, I could "declare" the bottom of the
bear market in gold only three months after its actual occur.
What we "should" do is to dust out our bottoming tools and sharpen them for
the possible end of the bear market in gold. Each has different ones. I
would like to take a major position in gold stocks. So I need to chose
which ones are the strongest, they may advance more in the forthcoming bull
market, and then "assuming" that what I see is not the beginning of the
young brand new bear market but possible end of the old one, start taking
position with goal of lowering cost of stocks ownership and protecting
position from the downside. There are different strategies to accomplish that.
Yours, Alex.
At 07:08 AM 7/21/99 -0700, rlopes wrote:
>It's not so much trashing gold, it's trashing the idea that everytime gold
>gets "cheap" one should go and buy gold because some calamaty in the world
>is going to cause great price appreciation. I think it is important to
look at the issue of price
>changes that may be significant and not just wiggles or short-covering
>rallies in what has been a down-trending market. I believe it a mistake to
>attempt to pick major tops and bottoms. I have lost my fair share of money
>with that strategy. Now if gold's downtrend stablizes and actually takes
>out a previous reactionary high (no matter what currency you trade it in)
>and there appears to be a shift in what is taking place within the market
>that one can reconize(such as what has taken place in oil this year) then
>by all means speculation in gold, looking for price appreciation, is worth
>venturing into. This very well could be "the"
>bottom, I don't know, I'll let the market show me. I don't need bottom tick
>to make money in gold. I had just wanted to point out that in this
>disinflationary environment, it doesn't pay to pick bottoms in gold,
>soybean, etc until we can determine with some validity that the
>disinflationary environment is actually changing with some significance.
>
>Now that I've rambled on... I've said my peace about bottom picking
>
>Good trading
>
>Randy Lopez
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