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MKT: Post Mortems, July 20, 1999



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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hello everybody</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is exactly one year since the market peaked last year 
before tanking 20%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Some members on this list, and some widely followed 
personalities had long before predicted July 20 1998 as being a major 
top.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>They were right, and made out like bandits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I was a rookie in this market half a decade ago, and courtesy 
the old RT listmember interaction found some good traders and authors here whose 
methods I internalized and started using for my own account.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Today, I benefited.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I am still a student, of works-in-progress that I cannot 
comment on. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This is my compilation of how my various "teachers" performed 
in helping me trade today. </FONT><FONT size=2>... for the record, the following 
indicators AND personalities got it right this time on - by being short or being 
flat going into Monday MOC after having been long since - June 24.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>These are all commercial websites/ authors with books. I am 
not pushing anybody's wares here, just acknowledging their work as I used it 
today to profit:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Newer listmemembers may want to note that a lot of 
personalities listed below exchange(d) ideas freely and with zero ego - right 
here on RT.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Listed, in no particular order:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1. Bob Roeske, at oextrader.com - a bunch of methods that I 
call his "indicatoritis" condition - all screaming short effective Friday MOC 
since 1 week ago.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks Bob, if you're reading this :)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2. Larry Connors/LBR (specific methods listed)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- Turtle Soup + 1 Sell (Street Smarts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- 8 Day Sell (from Advanced Trading Strategies)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- CVR2 Sell (ATS, a cousin method to CVR from Investment 
Secrets, his first book)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- TRIN Thrust (ATS, a cousin method to CHADTP from his first 
book)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- Low historical volatility breakouts (ATS) - this is why I 
posted the VIX question over the weekend; my positions were placed Friday MOC 
but I was fuming at the expensive fills. Now it doesn't matter; most of my short 
term positions are closed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- Momentum Thrust (Professional Traders Journal)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks Larry, if you're reading this :)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3. Jerry Favors (see commentary on jerryfavors.com). Great 
cycle work.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>4. "Berko" of TheStreet.com - co-manager of a hedge fund, I 
read about his stance whenever Jim Cramer lets loose one of his cannons. In this 
case, Berkowitz went flat MSFT last night in spite of better than expected 
numbers.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Called to be from The School of What Works Now, Cramer and 
</FONT><FONT size=2>TSC&nbsp;are like a bird's eye view&nbsp;into the 
institutional world of short term trading (the only thing that comes close is 
Kevin Haggerty on Tradehard.com).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>TSC has&nbsp;really no technical analysis that I can learn 
from, and I focus on the&nbsp;pure adrenalin trader juice while skipping the 
stories.&nbsp;Its archives give you a necessary grounding on what an institution 
that trades size thinks like, and JJC's intraday commentary give the reader a 
great up-to-the-heartbeat into a fellow trader's mindset. They win some, lose 
some, just like the rest of us. But one gets good perspective.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In this case, it became obvious that momentum 
trader/institutions were dumping no matter what came up in conference 
calls.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It just added fuel to my Lucent short fire, and I paid for a 
few years worth of subs in an overnighter trade.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>5. By the way, Lucent sold off after putting in a "Lizard" 
setup; quite typical of recent LU price action around news season.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So I thank Jeff Cooper, for adding Lizards, Iguanas and 
assorted other&nbsp;Boomerangs to my trading vocabulary.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I first heard of Jeff Cooper on this list, when Hit and Run 1 
was released and I read/printed out his interview.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It took me a few months to "get it". But since then, it has 
been like second nature to look at a recurring price pattern and think up a name 
- you know - you call it to-mae-toh, I call it to-maaa-toh.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jeff Cooper now comments daily on Tradehard.com with Kevin 
Haggerty, another recent addition to my "teachers" list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>6. Travis Jordan, of oextrader.com</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I&nbsp;call him "system god" This man blends e-wave with 
options trading and is on his way to stardom in Montana.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hasn't had much success in June (even though his account is up 
20 something percent for June), but he's always ready with an alternate wave 
count and one knows each minute, through his umpteen email updates where he 
stands on price action.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>7. Norm Winski:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Nothing planetary today that I could pick up, but he has amply 
demonstrated how to learn from, and respect the power of the planets. While on 
teachers, it is best to show some respect.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>8. Alex Jakobski, the Doc - for introducing me to the world of 
options - and more recently, an honest dialogue about their 
limitations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>9. Larry MacMillan, for printing two textbooks that make my 
life easier every trade I take.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>10. Andy Kreiger, ex-Salomon/Soros trader and author, and 
Forbes columnist. A must read for any currency trader - new or 
veteran.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>11. And finally, Lazslo Birinyi. A whole new way of tape 
reading.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hardly a Letterman's Top 10, but worth a mention to fellow 
traders. These guys (and LBR) are, the more I trade the more I realize - like 
you and me. But they give of themselves in their published methods from where 
people like me assimilate and benefit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>As they say for the IBD commercial, Buy It, Use It, and 
Profit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>And I haven't even scratched these 11 traders' collective 
talent surface.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thank you.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Gitanshu.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Jul 20 19:16:27 1999
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Date: Wed, 21 Jul 1999 09:06:55 +0800
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