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Jim White wrote:
> Norman,
> Congratulations on what is seemingly a profitable forecast.
NW: Thank you.
> Just a couple of
> questions please.
NW: Ok.
> Your post says the first aspect (Moon Contra parallel Pluto) is
> "particularly potent for Bonds" What would have been the result of a bond
> trade?
NW: Thanks for asking. I have been so busy, I forgot to check on the Bond trade
until you asked tonight. Just for confirmation, would some kind person please
post a one minute bar chart for Sept. T-Bonds for the first half of the day on
Friday, July 16, 1999? Please have a good time and price scale attached so
everyone can see exactly what the price was at the key times. Also, if not too
much trouble, draw it for EDT as this will be less confusing due to my posting
the aspects for EDT. Please designate which time zone. Thanks.
Now for a description of the results based on CBOT time and sales for
Sep. T-Bonds.. (EDT) The market opened on Friday (8:20 AM) at 116-27 to 116-28.
It then rallied for the next half hour peaking with 117-14 trading between
8:52:31 and 8:53:55. The market then dropped to about 117-01 during the next 15
minutes. At this time, another rally began, going up in an Elliott Wave ABC
pattern. Our aspect was due to kick in at 10:07 AM EDT. At 10:07:06 Sep. T-Bonds
traded 117-07, so we would have been short at this price. As you may remember,
we expected a negative influence from this aspect. Sep. T-Bonds then continued
higher to a high of 117:13 trading between 10:12:30 - 10:12:54.
>From this high, the market dropped rather precipitously to a low of 116-16
occurring at 10:51:32 AM. Then there was a bounce over the next ten minutes to
about 116-24. Our target time of 11:07 was represented by a second test of the
lows with a trade at 116-19 trading at 11:06:59.
Summary: Sold short Sep. T-Bonds at 117-07, closed trade via buy at 116-19 for +
20 ticks = $625 before commissions and slippage.
So, two S&P trades for + $1,250 and one Bond trade for + $625 = $1,875.
Coincidence? Lucky?
> Also you chose to report results for the S&P. What would have been
> the result for a DJIA index trade?
NW: Jim, you have the times and trading parameters. It would be great if you
could report back with the DJIA results. Remember, CBOT time and sales will be
CDT and I posted the aspects in EDT, so either subtract one hour from my times
or add one hour the the CBOT times. Thanks.
>
> Also, two examples are curious. Would you care to state the results of a
> significantly large sample of trades using the same rules?
NW: I have been doing this in my head and on hand drawn charts since 1975. I
know it works. The analogy is I have told you where the treasure is and shown
you a sample. Your reply is to ask me to go dig up some more treasure for you.
If I have to do all that work, I am going to keep it for myself.
Additionally, even if I did all the work you asked, which I have already done
and it is buried in storage,
the skeptics would cry that I somehow fudged the numbers. So, if you want a
really scientific study, I suggest someone with no bias (not me) run the test.
But, what I really believe is that even after you see thousands of data points
you will still be skeptical until you see it happen before your eyes a few
times.
After 25 years of watching these aspects on an intra-day basis, I am still
amazed.
> You know, things
> that traders might be interested in like what is the percentage of winning
> and losing trades? What is the distribution of return from such trades? I
> understand you have rules for determining if the trades are setting up
> correctly which you have not revealed but lets just consider the set of
> trades that meet your criteria. Providing this information will go a long
> way to add credibility to your post.
> Thanks in advance.
> Jim
NW: Jim, with all due respect, I don't have time to do that. All I can say is
that I think for the aspects I have posted in the past couple of years, my
recollection is that I am batting about 85% winners. I will let the other RTers
be my judge and jury.
Now let me ask you and some of the RTers a question. Did you require
this type of rigorous proof before you plopped down two or three thousand
dollars for Trade Station, Meta Stock, or a similar program? Most trading
programs advertise based on optimized results that occurred over a relatively
short period of time. These optimized methods are likely to fail as they only
capture some temporary pattern in the market. Now, I have pointed you at
something based in nature and 5,000 years of studies,
which if it works, there is no reason it should not continue to work for another
5,000 years. Perhaps it is worth further study and investigation? I have shown
you the path and which way to "Emerald City".
The next step is yours.
Pointingly,
Norman
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Real Traders 99 <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, July 17, 1999 4:53 PM
> Subject: Results - SPU 7/16 Astro Stock Market Intra-Day
>
> > RT,
> >
> > Here are the results of my little experiment, times and aspects posted
> > the night before, for Friday's trading. The prices are based on actual
> time
> > and sales from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. If you would like to check
> > them, you can go to http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/timef2.cgi/SP99-09.html.
> >
> > I gathered the data on the assumption that the aspect times below
> would
> > be traded in a purely mechanical fashion. Because the first aspect, Moon
> > Contra-Parallel Pluto tends to have a negative bias, I assumed that one
> > would go short one hour before the aspect was exact. Likewise, because the
> > second aspect has a positive bias, I assumed that one would go long one
> hour
> > before the aspect was exact. These assumption are in accord with the
> > information given in advance below. In both cases, we close out the trade
> at
> > the exact time or as close as possible to to the exact time based on time
> &
> > sales.
> >
> > If you do go to CME Time & Sales to check this out, please remember
> > that I posted the aspects based on EDT and CME time & sales are posted
> based
> > on CDT. So if we are looking for what the market did at 2:45 PM EDT, we
> need
> > to look up 1:45 PM CDT on the CME time & sales to compensate for the one
> > hour time zone difference.
> >
> > Here are the results posted in Eastern Daylight Time (NY Time):
> >
> > One hour before Moon Contra-Parallel Pluto is exact = 10:07 AM, 10:07:11
> AM
> > = SPU at 142080
> > Moon Contra-Parallel Pluto is exact at 11:07 AM = 11:07 AM, 11:07:06 AM =
> > SPU at 141900
> >
> > Result = + 180 S&P points = $450
> >
> > One hour before Moon Parallel Venus is exact = 2:45 PM, 2:45:05 PM = SPU
> at
> > 1425.50
> > Moon Parallel Pluto exact = 3:45 PM, 3:45:00 PM = SPU at 142870
> >
> > Result = +320 S&P points = $800
> >
> > Total for the two trades/one contract each = + 500 S&P points =
> $1,250 -
> > commissions & slippage.
> >
> > Comments please?
> >
> > Resultantly,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> > P.S. This is not the first time I have run this kind of experiment for
> this
> > list. My recollection is that the previous ones where also profitable.
> > Anyone have the ability to search for this?
> >
> >
> > > The following are not the highest confidence aspects, but should be
> > > worth watching. All times are EDT or - 4 GMT. Watch for these aspects to
> > > begin to have an effect on the market approximately one hour before the
> > > stated time and then fade away quickly after the stated time. Please
> > > note that this is being posted at 2:00 AM on July 16, 1999.
> >
> > > Event
> > > Time Notes
> > >
> > > Moon Contra Parallel Pluto 11:07 AM
> > > Particulalry potent for Bonds
> > >
> >
> > >
> > > Typically a low for stocks
> > >
> > > Moon Parallel Venus 3:45 PM
> >
> > >
> > > Typically generates 6-8 $
> > >
> > >
> > > S&P
> > > rally, this should peak at 3:45 PM.
> > >
> > > I have rules for determining whether these aspects are setting up
> > > correctly during the one hour before they are exact. This allows one to
> > > decide whether to take the trade or not with a high percentage of
> > > success. . However, that would constitute several pages of writing, i.e.
> > > chapter in my Trading Manual. So, with that in mind, I post these times
> > > for your entertainment enjoyment only.
> > >
> > > Aspectedly,
> > >
> > > Norman
> >
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