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CIEN and NOVL are the only two I follow.
CIEN is in an uptrend from October of last year, but seems to be at the
top of the range it has followed since then. The 37 1/2 level was
important last year as support in Feb and Apr 98, and as resistance
after the collapse in Aug. I would only play it very short term at the
moment, since it has demonstrated it can move down pretty quickly (6
points in 6 trading days in June 99).
I missed the most recent move in CIEN, over 5 points in 4 days, because
I found the patterns preceding the move confusing - - I work with pivots
a lot, and the action in the last half of June was negative, but without
conviction, and I just stayed away.
I would watch for a breakout from the long term range (trading over 40
by the end of July), which presents a possibility of returning to the
old highs. Otherwise I would look to sell if it took out the recent 29
3/8 pivot low.
NOVL is in my expereince very tough to trade. Its moves are very quick,
despite the high volume. Nothing happens for hours, even days, you turn
away, and it moves a point in five minutes. Then nothing again.
It became an intraday buy for me when it took out 28 3/8 (the previous
day's high and the third straight day of higher highs) two days ago.
I see the down side as greater than the upside here. It might get to 31
or 32, but when this move is over, I expect a return back to the 25
level, which is roughly the 61 day ema, which works well with trending
stocks. That price is safely above levels that would indicate a change
in trend (@24 on weekly, 24 1/8 last pivot low), and would be a great
place to catch a new upswing.
I trade very subjectively, although over time I trust the mechanics of
the pivots and 3 day averages of high and lows more, and my own
abilities less. On stocks, I find it hard to use these techniques on
time periods shorter than about 30 minutes, so I still have to decide
when to get in and out by 'watching the tape'. My weakness is letting my
losses run, so the mechanical aspects keep me out of trouble, a lesson
learned the hard way. Very hard.
Regards
DanG
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