|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Well according to past pattern the OEX should be selling off
at this point, but you know that story about the best layed plans of mice and
men. So far everything has fallen into place except the cooperation of the
OEX. Usually the cycle is something like this. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1. Triple exponential smoothing crosses before price peaks and
before the CBOE Total Equity C/P peaks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2. Total Equity C/P peaks and turns down as price continues
climbing reflecting change in sentiment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3. Price then turns down as latecomers are left holding the
bag.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>4. SMI as measure by Bill Blau Stochastic Momentum crosses
over.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>5. Put options then increase in value if time decay and
volatility do not work against you. Of course if the mkt is selling off
then VIX will be increasing and work in your favor.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Another chart not shown that uses volume and open interest has
the same pattern and sequence.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The EquityCP.gif chart illustrates the above sequence
that works quite often and another chart of the 720 July put for gunslingers
entered on today's failed rally. A third chart is attached showing
Thursdays target range and Friday's probability expectations. Say we get
some selling tomorrow then the lower green cone zone is an average expectation
and a red one would be one that causes some concern for the bulls. Say you
buy two contracts, and we get some selling then dump one at the green cone and
move the stop there for the second one and hope you get a drop to the red
one. If not then exit the second near the stop. This strategy will
most likely be aborted before the close tomorrow since there is a large
contingent that believes in the "buy the Friday close" of pre-expiration
week. Hopefully the byte size of these three.gifs makes it through the
system. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Good luck trading,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV></FONT>----- Original Message ----- </DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
RAY RAFFURTY </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, July 08, 1999 7:26
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Open Intrest, P/C ratio</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi RT's,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm curious if there has been any unusual changes in the P/C ratio or
open interest after the fed meeting? And if so, how will it effect
option expiration week?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
Good luck and good trading,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
Ray Raffurty</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Oezsd.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\EquityCP4.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Cone709.gif"
|